Japan Election, a Landslide for Abe, Could Allow a Bolder Military
安倍的修宪之路将亚洲引向何处？
TOKYO — The Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has governed Japan in one way or another for all but four of the past 61 years, a winning record that reflects the political inertia of a society that values stability and tradition.
东京——在过去61年中，日本现任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)所在的自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)以这样或者那样的方式统治着日本，只有四年例外。从这个出色的成绩可以看出，一个重视稳定和传统的社会存在怎样的惯性。
But even by the standards of Japanese politics, Abe’s landslide victory in national elections Sunday was stunning. For the first time, voters gave the Liberal Democrats and their allies more than two-thirds of the seats in Parliament — a supermajority that could allow Abe to realize his long-held ambition of revising the clause in the constitution that renounces war and make Japan a military power capable of global leadership.
但即使是以日本政坛的标准来看，安倍晋三周日在全国大选中获得的压倒性胜利也令人惊讶。这是自民党及其盟友第一次获得国会三分之二以上的超级多数席位，安倍晋三可能因此实现他的夙愿：修改日本宪法中放弃战争的条款，让日本的军事力量具备全球领导力。
Opinion polls show only lackluster support for Abe’s security agenda or even his program to revitalize the Japanese economy, but the public appeared unwilling to take another chance on the opposition Democratic Party, which stumbled badly in its last, rare stint in power, most notably in its response to the 2011 earthquake and Fukushima nuclear disaster.
民意调查显示，对于安倍晋三的安全议程，甚至是他振兴日本低迷经济的计划，民众的支持其实并不热烈，但大家似乎就是不愿意再给反对党民主党(Democratic Party)一个机会。该党上次好不容易上台之后，在执政期间表现得十分糟糕，尤其反映在2011年对地震和福岛核灾害做出的应对上。
The vote for stability at home, though, is likely to provoke unease across Asia, where memories of Japanese militarism in World War II endure and the prospect of a more assertive Japan will add to worries over North Korea’s nuclear program.
然而，日本为维持国内稳定而投出的选票，很可能会引起亚洲各国的不安。对二战期间日本军国主义的记忆，加上日本变得更加强势的前景，又在朝鲜的核计划之外，让他们增添了新的担忧。
In China, Xinhua, the state news agency, warned in a commentary Monday that the election results “could pose a danger to Japan and regional stability.”
周一，中国官方通讯机构新华社在一篇评论文章中警告，这样的选举结果“可能会对日本和地区的稳定构成威胁”。
Experts say that Abe’s governing coalition will not be able to push through constitutional revisions immediately, given that some of the partners have differing opinions on what needs to be amended and how. For example, the Liberal Democrats’ main ally, a small Buddhist party, has said that it opposes changes to the clause that renounces war. At a news conference Monday, Abe said that he intended to press for debate on constitutional revision, though he acknowledged that “it’s not so easy” and added, “I expect the discussion will be deepened.”
专家认为，安倍晋三的执政联盟将无法马上推动宪法的修订，因为一些盟友对于需要修改哪些条款、如何修改持有不同的意见。例如，身为自民党主要盟友的一个规模较小的佛教党派称，他们反对修改不参战的条款。在本周一的新闻发布会上，安倍晋三表示，他打算推动关于修宪的辩论，不过他承认“此事不是那么容易”，并表示，“我预计这场讨论会深入进行。”
Abe’s party, in a draft proposal of a revised constitution, has also recommended amendments to the clause on freedom of speech and the press that could limit these rights in cases deemed dangerous to the public interest. Another proposal would expand emergency powers for the prime minister. Any revision would need to be approved by a majority in a public referendum.
在一份修改宪法的拟议草案中，自民党还建议对言论和新闻自由的条款进行修订，可能会在被视为对公共利益有危害的情况下，对这些权利进行限制。另一项建议则会扩大首相的紧急处置权力。任何修订都需要在公投中获得多数票才能通过。
But the party’s victory Sunday appears to have less to do with its proposals and more to do with the disarray in the opposition Democratic Party.
不过，该党在周日获得的胜利，似乎与它的主张关系不大，而是和反对党民主党招致的不满关系更大。
“The people’s distrust towards the Democratic Party is very high,” said Lully Miura, a lecturer on international politics at Tokyo University. “In 2009, the Democratic Party won the government, but they failed and failed and failed, and even once-supporters of the Democratic Party now distrust them.”
“民众对民主党非常不信任，”东京大学(Tokyo University)的国际政治讲师三浦瑠丽(Lully Miura)说。“在2009年，民主党选举获胜上台，但他们接二连三地出问题，就连曾经支持民主党的人现在都不信任他们了。”
Some analysts said the opposition may have overestimated the public’s worries about Abe’s constitutional agenda at a time when so many remain concerned about Japan’s weak economy. Abe, for his part, spent most of his time on the campaign trail exhorting voters to allow his economic plan — called Abenomics — to continue, and he barely mentioned the constitution.
一些分析人士认为，反对党可能高估了公众对安倍晋三修宪计划的担忧，目前仍然有很多人对日本经济的疲弱感到担心。安倍晋三自己把竞选活动的大部分精力花在劝说选民让他把“安倍经济学”继续推行下去，几乎没有怎么提到宪法的事情。
“Probably the opposition parties pushed too much on the constitutional issue as a political agenda,” said Koji Murata, a professor of international relations at Doshisha University in Kyoto who supports constitutional changes. “But people didn’t care about the constitutional agenda in this upper-house election.”
“在把宪法问题作为政治议程来批驳的时候，反对党大概是做过头了。但在这次上院选举中，民众并不关心宪法议程，”京都同志社大学(Doshisha University)国际关系学教授村田晃嗣(Koji Murata)说。他本人支持修宪。
Toshio Ogawa, an opposition candidate from Tokyo who narrowly won a seat, said voters might have had a hard time understanding how his party’s economic plans differed from those of the Liberal Democrats. But, he said, “I knew that Abe’s real goals were security and the constitution. So I thought I had to point it out clearly.”
小川敏夫(Toshio Ogawa)是来自东京的反对党候选人，勉强赢得了一个国会席位。他表示选民们可能很难理解民主党与自民党在经济计划上的差别。但他说，“我知道，安倍晋三的真正目标是安全和宪法。所以我想我必须清楚地指出这一点。”
Critics said Abe’s party deliberately played down its agenda on constitutional change. Some also accused the Japanese media, particularly the public broadcaster, NHK, of conspiring to help the governing party and failing to air enough information about the issues at stake in the election.
批评者称，安倍晋三的政党故意淡化了其修宪议程。有的还指责日本媒体串谋帮助执政党，没有播放足够多的信息来介绍本次选举中事关重大的议题，特别是公共广播公司NHK。
Voters seemed more interested in staying the course and giving Abe’s economic policies more time to yield results than in the debate over rewriting Japan’s pacifist policies.
选民更感兴趣的似乎是保持现有轨道，给安倍经济学提供更多时间来产生效果，而不是关于修改日本和平主义政策的辩论。
“I want them to accelerate their economic policy to increase more jobs and improve social welfare,” said Akemi Machida, 29, who voted for Liberal Democratic candidates at a polling station in Sagamihara, a suburban town southwest of Tokyo. As for the opposition, she said, “There were no particular alternatives besides the LDP, whose policies sounded more convincing.”
“我希望他们给经济政策提速，从而增加更多的就业机会，提高社会福利，”在东京西南郊区相模原市的一个投票站，29岁的町田明美（Akemi Machida，音）说。她投票支持自民党候选人。至于反对党，她认为，“除了自民党之外，没有什么特别的选择。他们的政策听起来更具说服力。”
Outside Japan, Abe’s new supermajority is likely to further unsettle an increasingly tense region. South Korea defied China last week by announcing that it would deploy an advanced U.S. missile defense system to protect itself against North Korea.
在日本之外，安倍晋三这次获得的超级多数席位可能进一步加剧该地区的紧张局势。韩国上周不顾中国的反对，宣布将会部署一种先进的美国导弹防御系统，以保护自己免受朝鲜攻击。
“The Chinese will fear that Abe will find a way to work the system to his advantage,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia and a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. At a regular news briefing Monday, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Lu Kang, said that China and other Asian countries were “concerned about political moves in Japan” because of its past military action in the region.
“中国必然会担心安倍晋三找到一种方式，让这套系统按照有利于他的方式发挥效用，”华盛顿国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的亚洲问题高级顾问、中国问题专家葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。外交部发言人陆慷在周一的例行记者会上表示，由于日本过去在该地区采取的军事行动，中国和其他亚洲国家“对日本国内现在的一些政治动向有关切”。
In South Korea, an editorial in Munhwa Ilbo, a right-leaning newspaper, said the election results “opened the door for a Japan that can go to war,” though it added that a rearmed country “will also help deter North Korea’s nuclear threat and check the rising military power of China.”
韩国右倾刊物《文化日报》(Munhwa Ilbo)发表社论称，这样的选举结果“为日本可以发动战争打开了大门”，不过文中还写道，日本的重新武装“也将有助于遏制朝鲜的核威胁，牵制中国日益崛起的军事力量”。