In 1980, the population of the People’s Republic of China numbered close to a billion, and most were among the poorest people on earth. China produced barely a third as much steel as the US. Thirty five years later, it makes more steel in six weeks than the US does in a year, and has engineered the greatest fall in poverty in world history. Set beside the arrival of China into the global economy, no event since the industrial revolution has had a greater impact — not the financial crisis, nor even the collapse of the Soviet Union.
1980年，中华人民共和国人口接近10亿，其中大部分属于全球最贫困人群，钢产量勉强达到美国的三分之一。35年后的今天，中国6周的钢产量就比美国一年的还要多，并且实现了世界史上最大规模的减贫。工业革命以来，没有任何事件比中国融入全球经济更具影响力——金融危机、甚至苏联解体都无法与之匹敌。
The Middle Kingdom is still — just — the world’s most populous country, but the number of its people that are of working age is on a downward trajectory. There is growing evidence of labour shortages, wages rising faster than productivity, and of the flow of migrant labour from the rural interior slowing sharply. Named for the Nobel Prize-winner Sir Arthur Lewis, countries that hit this Lewis Turning Point usually see economic growth fall. Handling lower growth will preoccupy China’s rulers in the decades to come, and provide the rest of the world with much to think about.
“中央王国”如今依然是世界第一人口大国（不过与第二名的差距已非常小），但劳动年龄人口数量呈下降趋势。劳动力短缺、工资上涨快于生产率增长、以及内陆农村地区农民工外流大幅放缓的迹象越来越多。一个国家到达“刘易斯拐点”(Lewisian Turning Point)后，经济增长通常会减速。这个拐点是以诺贝尔奖得主阿瑟•刘易斯爵士(Sir Arthur Lewis)的名字命名的。未来几十年，低增长将成为困扰中国统治者的主要问题，如何应对这个问题将为世界其余国家带来许多值得思考的东西。It is important not to exaggerate the significance of this turning point. While the sheer number of its people mesmerises the outside world, China has long been far more than a sweatshop. Closer examination shows a pattern of growth based more upon increased capital than labour, and by combining the two more cleverly. In recent years, investment has made up more than half of GDP, while the reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s triggered a 30 year-long spurt of productivity growth.
重要的是不应夸大这个拐点的影响。尽管中国庞大的人口数量令外界印象深刻，但这个国家早已彻底摆脱血汗工厂的身份。更仔细的研究显示，中国的增长模式更多基于资本（而非劳动力）的增加、以及资本与劳动力更巧妙的结合。近年来，投资对中国国内生产总值(GDP)的贡献超过一半，而邓小平上世纪70年代启动的改革，引发了一场长达30年的生产率井喷式增长。
The cheap goods churning out of Chinese factories were a boon to the developed world, helping to bring about a long spell of non-inflationary growth. There is no need to fear the loss of this tailwind; India alone could add three times more people to its workforce than China will lose, and other countries such as Nigeria and Bangladesh are on a similar upswing. The challenge is for such countries to upgrade their infrastructure, improve their business environment, and thereby come to compete effectively for the business.
中国工厂大量生产出来的廉价商品曾造福发达世界，帮助后者实现了较长时期的无通胀增长。担心这种福利消失是没有必要的；仅印度一国的劳动力增加量，可能就三倍于中国的劳动力减少量，而尼日利亚和孟加拉国等国家也将出现类似的劳动力大幅增长。这些国家面临的挑战在于升级基础设施、改善营商环境、从而能在争取业务时进行有效的竞争。As much as to adapt to this demographic slowdown, China’s task is to wean itself away from a risky overreliance on investment. Its incremental capital output ratio, the GDP eked from each extra unit of capital, has deteriorated, and will be further undermined by rising wages. Shifting investment away from construction and towards productivity-enhancing machinery is one way forward; by 2017, China is forecast to have more robots installed in its manufacturing plants than any other country.
与适应这种人口变化趋势同样重要的是，中国须摆脱危险的、对投资的过分依赖。中国的增量资本产出率（衡量每增加一单位资本能产生多少GDP）已经恶化，而且会因工资日益上涨进一步变糟。一条出路是，减少对建筑业的投资，增加对能提高生产率的机械设备的投资；到2017年，中国工厂中的机器人装机量预计将超过其他任何国家。But even better is for Beijing to push through structural reforms, such as subjecting more state-owned enterprises to market discipline and liberalising the financial sector. This last reform also ought to help encourage ordinary Chinese consumers to open their wallets, thereby rebalancing growth towards household spending.
但更好的出路是，中国政府推进结构性改革，比如让更多国企接受市场的约束和放开金融业。这场最新的改革还应该有助于鼓励普通中国消费者打开钱包，从而增加居民消费所占的比重、让经济增长恢复平衡。China’s leaders have never been complacent about the country’s growth prospects, even as rivals remain daunted. Somehow they need to provide higher living standards, clean up their polluted cities and husband a water supply shrinking to dangerously low levels. There is a reason that international busybodies like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank clamour tirelessly for more structural reform: in the end economic growth comes down to producing more from less. The past 30 years are proof that China can pull it off. The dwindling number of workers in China will not so much change the agenda as reinforce it.
尽管中国的增长前景依然让竞争对手自叹不如，但中国领导人从未因此自满过。他们需要设法提供更高的生活水平、清除城市污染、节约正萎缩至危险水平的水资源。国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)等国际组织不知疲倦地大声呼吁加大结构性改革是有道理的：经济增长归根结底要靠用更少的资源生产出更多东西。中国用过去30年证明了自己能够做到这点。劳动年龄人口减少不会改变这个议程，只会进一步强化它。