Paris might have been Berlin, London or Rome. Europe has something of the feel of a continent under siege. On its eastern edge, governments have been overwhelmed by the numbers arriving from Syria, Afghanistan and many troubled points beyond. The Paris atrocity, the murderous work of the self-styled Islamic State, has seen Syria’s brutal civil war transferred almost casually to the heart of one of Europe’s great cities.
受到攻击的城市原本可能不是巴黎，而是柏林、伦敦或罗马。欧洲有一种整体遭到围攻的感觉。在欧洲东面，来自叙利亚、阿富汗和许多其他受难地区的难民的巨大数量，令各国政府不堪重负。从发生在巴黎的暴行——即自封的“伊斯兰国”(Islamic State)所犯下的杀人事件——可以看到，叙利亚的残酷内战几乎在不经意间，就已转移至欧洲最大城市之一的核心地带。
The refugees making their way across the Balkans to Germany and Sweden are running from violent sectarian chaos. The murders in Paris show once again how easily this violence can reach deep into the European continent. After this year’s attacks on Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish supermarket perhaps the latest crimes should not have been a surprise. The sense of shock this weekend is no less for that.
而穿过巴尔干半岛前往德国和瑞典的难民，在逃离充满暴力的派系纷争。巴黎发生的多起杀戮，再次证明这种暴力向欧洲大陆纵深扩散有多么容易。在今年《查理周刊》(Charlie Hebdo)和一家犹太超市遭遇袭击后，对于这场最新的罪行，人们不应感到意外。然而上周末所造成的冲击丝毫不会因此减少。
Most likely, there will be more such moments. The hard fact is that we live in an age of systemic disorder. As we might have learned from New York, Madrid, London and Mumbai there is no hiding place from upheavals elsewhere. In much of the Middle East the state system bequeathed a century ago by Europe’s departing imperial powers has broken down. In this part of the world, terrible shootings and bombings such as those in Paris have become almost a commonplace. Globalisation, identity politics and technology have provided the transmission mechanisms to spread the terror across borders and continents.
最有可能的情形是，还会出现更多这样的时刻。一个让人不得不承认的事实是，我们生活在一个系统性动荡的时代。正如我们可能已经从纽约、马德里、伦敦和孟买的恐怖事件中学到的，在其他地方也没有能够免受动荡影响的避风港。在中东大部分地区，一个世纪以前欧洲帝国势力离开时留下的政府体制已分崩离析。在世界的这个角落，类似巴黎恐怖袭击那样的可怕枪击案和爆炸事件，几乎已成为一种常见现象。全球化、身份政治以及技术进步，已经为恐怖的跨境和跨洲扩散提供了传播机制。
French president Hollande called the murders an act of war. They were certainly that. But this is not a war as we usually would understand it. Isis has seized territory in Iraq and Syria, but its potency lies in the fact that it is as much an idea and ideology as organisation. In Europe it wants to provoke an anti-Islamic backlash that will feed it with more recruits from indigenous Muslims. These latest murders, Isis said, were retribution for French bombing of their fighters in Iraq and Syria. That was part of it, but no one in Europe should imagine they could exempt themselves by washing their hands of the Middle East.
法国总统弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)称这轮杀戮是一种战争行为。它们无疑是战争行为，不过这不是我们通常理解的战争。ISIS在伊拉克和叙利亚控制了大片土地，然而它的威力却依赖于这样一个事实：它既是一个组织，也是一种思想和意识形态。在欧洲，它希望激发一种反伊斯兰的反弹，这会把更多欧洲本土穆斯林变成它的新成员。ISIS表示，最新这轮杀戮，是法国轰炸伊拉克和叙利亚的ISIS战士所应得的报应。这确实是其中部分原因。不过，欧洲不应该有人以为，通过置身中东事外，他们就可以让自己免遭恐怖袭击。
The immediate demand is for answers and action. Could the plot have been uncovered; did the intelligence services miss something; how important was the complicity of French citizens mentioned by Mr Hollande? At least one of the killers carried a Syrian passport. Were others radicalised in France before being trained for this atrocity in the jihadis war against Syria’s Bashar Al Assad? Is it time for France to reset the balance between personal liberty and collective security? What about the promises after Charlie Hebdo to offer a better future to France’s Muslims?
眼下，我们亟待回答多个问题并行动起来。这次恐怖袭击的阴谋原本有可能被发现么？情报机构是不是漏掉了什么？奥朗德提到的法国公民的合谋有多重要？在这些杀手中，至少有一人持有叙利亚护照。其他人是在法国转向激进主义，再在针对叙利亚巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)的圣战中，为这次暴行受训的么？法国是不是该重新寻找个人自由与集体安全之间的平衡点了？对于在《查理周刊》事件后提出的为法国穆斯林提供更美好未来的承诺，人们该如何对待？
One impulse — sensibly forsworn by Mr Hollande — will say it is time for Europe to throw up the barricades. Leave it to regional powers to fight it out. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, after all, have given life to Isis by incorporating the Syrian civil war into the struggle for dominance between Sunnis and Shia. Let them suffer the consequences. As for Russia, well Vladimir Putin has already paid for its intervention with the downing over Egypt — almost certainly the work of an Isis-affiliated group — of a Russian civilian jet carrying more than 200 tourists.
一种冲动的观点认为（奥朗德已经明智地誓言放弃这种观点），欧洲是时候建立起屏障了。把这个问题留给该地区的大国去解决。毕竟是沙特阿拉伯、土耳其以及伊朗把叙利亚内战纳入逊尼派和什叶派的统治权之争，才催生了ISIS。让他们自食苦果吧。至于俄罗斯，弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)已经为其介入付出了代价，俄罗斯一架载有逾200名游客的客机在埃及坠落——几乎可以肯定这是ISIS附属组织的杰作。
In this respect, the Paris attacks are a gift to Europe’s xenophobes. The risk is that the far right, already prospering by peddling anti-Muslim identity politics, succeed in drawing false connections between migration and terror. The us-versus-them politics of parties such France’s far-right National Front makes the scantiest of distinction between violent jihadis and peaceful Islam. In this twisted mindset every Muslim refugee is a potential terrorist. What should frighten Europeans is that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is seen as a credible candidate in the contest for the French presidency in 2017.
从这个角度看，巴黎恐袭是欧洲排外情绪的产物。危险在于，已经靠兜售反穆斯林的身份政治而壮大的极右翼势力，成功地将移民和恐怖主义建立了错误关联。诸如法国极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)等党派“我们是我们、他们是他们”的政治主张，对暴力的圣战分子与平和的伊斯兰教徒完全不加区分。在这种扭曲的心态下，每一个穆斯林难民都成了潜在的恐怖分子。国民阵线的马琳勒庞(Marine Le Pen)竟然被视为法国2017年总统大选的可靠候选人，这才应该令欧洲人感到恐惧。
An opposing response will say that it is time to “double-up”. By permitting Isis to hold territory, the west has given it the opportunity to turn a local organisation into a global ideology. Isis can now claim the allegiance of tens of thousands of so-called foreign fighters — many if not most of them from Europe — and affiliates reaching across the Middle East and Maghreb to the Sahel. I was at a security conference in Beijing last month. Top of the agenda? The boost provided by Isis to Islamist extremism across Asia.
一种相反的观点认为，是时候“双倍加仓”了。允许ISIS保持领地，西方赋予了该组织从地方组织转变为全球性意识形态的机会。ISIS如今可以宣称有成千上万所谓的外国战士对其效忠，而这些外国战士中，来自欧洲的战士就算不是占大多数，也着实不少，同时其附属组织已触及整个中东、马格里布（Maghreb，马格里布是历史上对北非地区阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和突尼斯的统称——译者注）到萨赫勒（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和苏丹草原地区之间一条横跨多个国家的地带——译者注）地区。我上个月在北京参加了一次安全会议。会议的首要议题？就是ISIS对遍布亚洲的伊斯兰极端主义的推动。
The case for a more ruthless assault on Isis is a powerful one. Destruction of its strongholds in Iraq and Syria will not wipe it out — just as al-Qaeda survived the US march into Afghanistan — but you have to start somewhere. This time, though, the west must remember what it forgot after the attacks of September 11 2001. There are no military solutions.
支持对ISIS予以更无情打击的理由很充分。摧毁其在伊拉克和叙利亚的强大据点并不会将其消灭——就像基地组织(al-Qaeda)在美国进军阿富汗后仍然得以存活一样——但是你必须从某处下手。不过，这一次西方国家必须记住其在2001年9月11日恐怖袭击后所忘记的事情。军事手段解决不了问题。
Ending the Syrian civil war, and thus depriving Isis of its organising mission, requires a political agreement. Most probably it will be an ugly one. Almost certainly, it will require western leaders to retreat from past rhetoric. But Europeans will feel safer in their cities only when there is a settlement of sorts in Iraq and Syria.
结束叙利亚内战、并以此使ISIS失去组织使命，需要一份政治协议。只不过这极可能是一份难堪的协议。几乎可以肯定，这将需要西方领导人放弃过去的言论。但是，只有当伊拉克和叙利亚的问题得以解决时，欧洲人才会在自己的城市里感觉更安全。