【英文原文】
Caveat Lector! Ten Predictions for 2010
I said it last year - and I'll say it again. There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future - and that is publicly sharing your predictions.
Judge for yourself.
Meanwhile, it's onto 2010:
AIG CEO Robert Benmosche will be voted CEO of the Year.
Benmosche's abrasive morale-building exercise at AIG will take hold. The U.S. pay czar will give Benmosche leeway on pay. And a continuing rebound in the markets will give AIG a shot at repaying a good chunk of taxpayer money.
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman will do an about-face on the bank's 'lower risk' corporate strategy.
About now, new CEO Gorman is probably learning that the meager profits of a retail brokerage can't pay for all those monster Wall Street bonuses. Expect Gorman to decide that Morgan Stanley should be a lot more like trader Goldman Sachs, after all.
Goldman Sachs will pay out big bonuses, be publicly vilified for a month and then go quietly back to printing profits.
The U.S. Congress and the media will go berserk when Goldman announces the size of its 2009 bonus pool. But the outrage will be brief and of little lasting consequence. The 'hate Goldman Sachs' story has been running just too long.
The GM turnaround will drag on. Forget a 2010 IPO.
GM is addicted to hefty sales incentives to move the cars and new CEO Ed Whitacre knows it. In 2010, he will slash incentives and end up abandoning GM's 20% U.S. market share target to find profitability. The search will prove elusive.
Fiat will seek to renegotiate the terms of its investment in Chrysler.
With Chrysler's market share in a death spiral, Fiat will finally grasp that this dud is exactly that - a dud. By autumn, Fiat will threaten to walk away from Chrysler unless the UAW and U.S. taxpayer offer up even more concessions.
Washington's twin-obsessions in election year 2010 will be to create jobs and cut the deficit. Little will be accomplished on either count.
Congress will authorize billions more in stimulus that won't be called 'stimulus' and won't actually create jobs. And Congress will convene a bi-partisan deficit cutting commission that won't do much either. Until investors stop buying US Treasurys, why should Congress change its ways?
The story of the year will be the New York City trial of Khalid Sheik Mohammed.
The OJ Simpson trial proved that nothing gets the masses as excited as murder and celebrity. Throw in Flight 253 and the ambitions of dozens of terrorists, trial lawyers, prosecutors, politicians and aggrieved 9-11 families and you have a story that will run and run.
Final predictions: Weak economic growth will continue into 2010. By spring, the Obama White House will be forced to the political center and U.S. businesses will finally believe in a modest recovery.
Here is my best guess - and that's all it is - for how the U.S. economy and markets will look in 2010:
2010 U.S. unemployment rate (average): 10.2%
2010 S&P 500 index (year-end): 1300
2010 10-year Treasury yield (year-end): 5.0%
【中文译文】
我去年就说过、今年要再强调的一点是：唯一比预测未来更不招人待见的事情就是公开自己的预言。
判断权在你手里。
现在，我们来说说2010年。
美国国际集团(AIG)首席执行长本默切(Robert Benmosche)将当选年度CEO。
本默切重振公司士气的艰苦努力将取得回报。美国“薪酬沙皇”将对他网开一面。而且各个市场的持续回暖将令公司有机会偿还一大笔美国纳税人的救助资金。
摩根士丹利首席执行长戈尔曼(James Gorman)将给该行所谓“降低风险”的策略来个大掉头。
眼下，这位大摩新掌门或许意识到了来自零售经纪业务的微薄盈利还不够华尔街薪酬的血盆大口塞牙缝。预计戈尔曼会决定最终要向交易商高盛(Goldman Sachs)看齐。
高盛将大派红包，饱受各方抨击一个月，然后静悄悄地干回自己的老本行－－挣钱。
估计当高盛公布自己2009年的奖金规模时，美国国会和媒体又会气得抓狂。但这些怨气终将只是过眼云烟，改变不了什么。所谓“高盛招人恨”的故事实在是拖得太长了。
通用汽车(GM)咸鱼翻身不易，2010年举行首次公开募股一事就别惦记了。
通用汽车现在已经对挥泪大促销上瘾，新首席执行长惠塔克里(Ed Whitacre)对此心知肚明。他将在2010年取消一些购买刺激措施，以放弃全美20%市场占有率目标的方式来谋求重获盈利能力。这番求索注定是前路艰难。
菲亚特(Fiat)试图就投资克莱斯勒(Chrysler)条款重新谈判。
眼见克莱斯勒的市场份额呈现死亡式螺旋下降，菲亚特会最终认识到这个不中用的公司还真就是不中用了。预计菲亚特会在8月前扬言彻底和克莱斯勒分道扬镳，除非全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)和美国纳税人作出更多让步。
创造就业和削减赤字将成为华盛顿在2010年选举之年的孪生执念。不过，这两样一个都成不了现实。
国会将批准追加数十亿美元的刺激资金，但不会冠以“刺激”之名，也不会真正创造什么就业机会。国会将联合两党成立一个削减赤字的委员会，但同样发挥不了什么作用。既然美国国债还有投资者买，国会为什么要改弦更张？
年度故事将是纽约对911主谋穆罕默德(Khalid Sheikh Mohammed)的审判。
当年辛普森(OJ Simpson)杀妻案的审判就说明，再也没什么能比谋杀和名人的组合更能引发公众的集体亢奋了。再加上253号班机爆炸未遂案、几十个恐怖分子、审判律师、公诉人、政客以及911遇难者家属的激动情绪，足够在你面前上演一出长得如同滔滔江水延绵不绝的连续剧。
最后的预言：疲软的经济增长将延续至2010年。在春天前，奥巴马的白宫都不得不扮演美国政治中心的角色，美国商业界也终于开始相信会出现温和复苏。
下面是我对2010年美国经济以及市场前景最乐观也是最终的猜测。
2010年美国平均失业率：10.2%。
2010年标准普尔500指数年终收盘报：1300点。
2010年10年期美国国债收益率年终收盘报：5.0%。