In 2005 Robert Zoellick, as US deputy secretary of state, proposed that China might play the role of “responsible stakeholder” in shaping the international agenda. Despite its rise, most observers now do not see Beijing playing this role. China is often seen as unco-operative on issues ranging from trade and investment flows to intellectual property rights, climate change and the acquisition of natural resources. This has created the impression that Beijing is more inclined to use its clout to advance core interests than strengthen partnerships.
2005年时任美国副国务卿的罗伯特•佐利克(Robert Zoellick)提出，中国应在国际事务领域扮演“负责任的利益相关方”角色。虽然中国日渐崛起，但绝大多数观察家目前并未看到中国担负起这一职责。在贸易与投资流动、知识产权、气候变化以及自然资源采购等问题上，中国常被看做是一个不愿合作的国家。这给外界留下了一种印象，即中国政府更愿意运用自身政治影响力来增进核心利益，而非加强伙伴关系。Some observers have interpreted President Xi Jinping’s “China dream” to mean that he will adopt a more nationalistic policy. But in advance of his first state trips to Russia and Africa, he stressed that his country’s great national renewal” would benefit the world and that “as its strength increases, it will assume more international responsibilities”.
某些观察家把中国国家主席习近平提出的“中国梦”解读为，这意味着习近平将采取一种更具民族主义色彩的执政风格。但在对俄罗斯和非洲进行首次国事访问之前，习近平强调说，中华民族的伟大复兴将有益于整个世界，“随着国力不断增强，中国将承担更多国际责任”。Mr Zoellick may have been right, just a decade premature. Evolving circumstances could lead China to becoming a responsible stakeholder but much will depend on its actions and those of western powers.
佐利克或许是对的，但他的提议较现实超前了十年。国际局势的不断演进可能促使中国成为一个“负责任的利益相关方”，但这在很大程度上将取决于中国自身与西方大国的行动。
The nation is becoming a more “normal” economy – relying less on centrally driven investments in moving to a more market-driven growth path. But normality means slower growth and greater vulnerability to cycles. The country can no longer maintain stability by controlling interest and exchange rates and limiting capital movements, while internationalising the renminbi involves greater risks.
中国正在逐步成为一个更加正常的经济体，较少依赖于中央主导型投资，转向以市场驱动为主的增长路径。但“正常”意味着经济增速的放缓以及更易受到经济周期波动影响。中国无法继续依靠控制利率和汇率以及限制资本流动来保持经济稳定，而人民币国际化则蕴含着更大的风险。The result is that Beijing’s instincts are reactive rather than designed to forge long-term solutions. Its economic success is pushing it to act as a leading power prematurely.
由此产生的结果是，中国政府的才能仅限于应对当下问题，而不适于设计长期解决方案。中国的经济成就正迫使中国过早地像一个世界主要大国那样行事。China’s tensions with the west intensified as its trade surpluses surged in the past decade. These surpluses have been depicted as the result of exchange rate manipulation and unfair subsidies.
近十年来，随着中国贸易顺差规模的快速增长，中国与西方关系的紧张程度加剧。贸易顺差被外界描绘为中国操纵本国汇率以及实施不公平贸易补贴的结果。But country’s long history also affects its thinking. It is a returning economic power – one that accounted for 30 per cent of global production two centuries ago but saw its share fall to less than 5 per cent by 1950. Even today at 15 per cent it is only half of what it once was. Moreover, China’s ability to escape the middle-income trap is not guaranteed. Only a handful of middle-income countries have made the transition in the past four decades, and none with China’s formidable handicaps. Foremost among these is that the country will become old before becoming rich, with the needs of the elderly representing a huge financial burden.
悠久的历史对中国的思维方式也有影响。中国是一个正在复兴的经济大国。在两个世纪以前，中国在全球总产值中所占比重高达30%，但到1950年，这一比重降至不足5%。即使如今中国在全球总产值中所占比重已回升至15%，但也依然仅是过去的二分之一。此外，中国并不一定有能力避开中等收入陷阱。在过去的四十年中，成功实现转型的中等收入国家屈指可数，而且没有一个具有像中国这样难以克服的不利条件。其中最主要的困难在于，中国社会将未富先老，对老年人的福利支出将带来沉重的财政负担。Many observers do not appreciate that China ranks only 90th internationally in per capita income. China also recognises the reality that if it succumbs to a debilitating economic crisis, adequate external financial support is unlikely to materialise because of its sheer size.
按人均国民收入计算，中国在全球仅名列第90位，很多观察家不正视这一点。中国也意识到，如果经受不住经济危机的负面影响，自身过于庞大的经济规模将使其不太可能获得充足的外部财政支持。All this suggests the nation may not be ready to move into the role of a responsible stakeholder. But more positive outcomes are possible as its status in the international financial system is recalibrated to reflect its enhanced standing.
所有这些都表明，中国或许还没有准备好担当起“负责任的利益相关方”的角色。但如果中国在国际金融体系中的地位得到重估，以反映其影响力的提升，那么就有可能产生更为积极的结果。Beijing has incentives to support more open markets domestically and fight protectionism. This would help counter criticisms of its trade practices and put pressure on those countries inclined to raise barriers.
中国政府愿意支持进一步开放国内市场和打击保护主义。这将有助于回击对中国贸易举措的批评，并给那些有意提高贸易壁垒的国家以压力。Nudging China in the direction of becoming a responsible stakeholder will gain momentum if Beijing has more say in the system. There are lessons from the way that the US has been pushing the trans-Pacific Partnership. If it had been more flexibly designed, China might have seen itself as having a stake in developing a productive outcome.
如果中国在国际体系内拥有更多的发言权，将有助于推动中国朝着成为一个负责任的利益相关方的方向迈进。美国推动跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的方式值得借鉴。如果当时的机制设计更为灵活，中国或许会把取得更有建设性的结果看作与自身利益密切相关。Criticism of China’s economic policies affects Beijing’s perception of itself if it believes it is suffering from a system not of its making. The key is convincing China that its interests are best served by forging solutions through compromise and co-operation and reassuring Beijing that its concerns will be heard.
如果中国认为一个自身在其中说不上话的体系正损及本国利益，那么对于中国经济政策的批评将影响中国对自身的认知。问题的关键在于说服中国相信，通过妥协与合作形成解决方案是最符合中国自身利益的，此外还应打消中国方面的疑虑，使其相信自身的担忧将得到倾听。The writer is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank director for China
本文作者为美国卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment)高级研究员，曾任世界银行(World Bank)中国业务局局长