The global rage for upsetting the established order shows signs of having reached Japan. Tokyo’s first female governor, Yuriko Koike, humiliated prime minister Shinzo Abe earlier this month by leading her newly formed political party to a commanding victory over Mr Abe’s ruling Liberal Democrats in elections for the capital’s assembly.
颠覆现有秩序的全球怒火显示出正蔓延至日本的迹象。东京都首位女知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)在7月让安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)感到了难堪——她领导自己新组建的政党，在东京都议会选举中大胜安倍领导的执政党自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)。This leaves the former newscaster positioned as a viable alternative to Mr Abe, who until recently appeared to have a firm grip on power. Already under pressure, Mr Abe announced he will reshuffle his cabinet next month as his approval rating sank to its lowest level since he took power in 2012.
这让这位前新闻播音员成为接替安倍的可行人选，后者直至最近似乎仍紧紧控制着权力。安倍已经感受到了压力，他宣布将在8月重组内阁，其支持率已跌至2012年上台以来的最低水平。Ms Koike presents herself as a kind of anti-Abe — a reformist crusader on a mission to overturn the status quo. It is not clear, though, that she represents a plan B or alternative to “Abenomics”, the prime minister’s blueprint for reviving Japan’s fortunes.
小池百合子认为自己在某种程度上是反安倍的——一位肩负着颠覆现状使命的改革斗士。然而，目前尚不清楚的是，她是代表着“B计划”还是“安倍经济学”的替代版本。安倍经济学是安倍为复兴日本而提出的经济蓝图。
For one thing, Ms Koike is in many ways Mr Abe’s ideological sister, sharing both his commitment to growth-promoting economic liberalisation and his penchant for conservative nationalism. Until recently, she was a member of his Liberal Democratic party.
首先，小池百合子在意识形态的许多方面与安倍相近，既承诺推行促进增长的经济自由化措施，又倾向于保守的民族主义。就在不久前，她还是安倍的自民党中的一员。During her campaign for the Tokyo governorship last year, Ms Koike vowed to “make Abenomics take off from Tokyo”. She was referring in particular to what Mr Abe has called the “third arrow” of structural reform, promising that the capital would be the “gravitational force of the growth strategy”. As governor, she surprised many by supporting the prime minister’s plan for special economic zones. And she is the staunchest proponent of Mr Abe’s vision of female empowerment, which he calls “Womenomics”.
在去年竞选东京都知事期间，小池百合子誓言“让安倍经济学从东京启动”。她尤其还提及被安倍称为“第三支箭”的结构性改革，承诺东京将是“该增长战略的核心力量”。作为东京都知事，她支持安倍提出的设立经济特区的计划，这让许多人感到意外。而且小池百合子还是安倍提出的妇女赋权愿景的最坚定支持者——安倍将此称为“女性经济学”。Ironically, Ms Koike’s victory could be the best thing that has happened to Mr Abe in months. Faced with a credible threat in the shape of the Tokyo governor, Mr Abe will need to listen to the people and turn his attention back to the economy — and away from his pet project of constitutional reform, which would put Japan on the path to having a real army. Ms Koike may shake Mr Abe out of the complacency into which he has fallen thanks to the thumping majority he enjoys in both houses of parliament.
具有讽刺意味的是，小池百合子的胜利可能是安倍近几个月来遇到的最好的事情。在面对东京都知事小池百合子带来的巨大威胁下，安倍将需要倾听民众的呼声，将注意力从其偏爱的宪法改革转回到经济上来——宪法改革将让日本走上以拥有真正军队为目标的道路。小池百合子可能让安倍放下因在国会两院获得绝对多数地位而产生的自满情绪。Ms Koike, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher and Hillary Clinton, should be setting her sights on Japan’s top job. But she would be well-advised to be patient. If she tries to emulate, say, Emmanuel Macron’s lightning path to power in France, she may well discover — like many Japanese reformers in the past — that she lacks the clout or power base to carry out any of her plans.
小池百合子是玛格丽特?撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)和希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的倾慕者，她应该会谋求日本首相一职。但她最好耐心一些。比如，如果她试图效仿埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)在法国闪电般的崛起之路，她可能发现——与日本过去的许多改革家一样——自己缺乏实施任何改革的影响力或权力基础。It may serve Ms Koike’s interests, therefore, to sit out her next opportunity to grab the premiership, in 2018. She should strive first to be a successful governor of Tokyo. In that role she enjoys a huge legislative mandate, as well as great executive power, in a city that has the population and gross domestic product of a mid-sized advanced nation.
因此，不急着在2018年竞争首相职位可能符合小池百合子的利益。她首先应该努力成为一名成功的东京都知事。东京是一座人口和GDP达到中等规模发达国家水平的城市，小池百合子担任知事享有巨大的立法委任权和行政权力。
She should fulfil her promise to launch Mr Abe’s third arrow from Tokyo — perhaps in spite of the prime minister himself. She should ensure a dazzling Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020. This would guarantee her immense kudos, rekindling memories of the 1964 Tokyo games, a landmark event which symbolised the country’s recovery after the devastation of the second world war.
她应该兑现其从东京发射安倍“第三支箭”的承诺——或许不管安倍自己怎样做。她应该确保2020年的东京奥运会光彩夺目。这将确保她获得巨大荣誉，令人回忆起1964年东京奥运会，那是象征着日本在二战遭受重创后复苏的里程碑事件。The task will be formidable, for “To-cho”, as Tokyo City Hall is known, is notorious for the influential “dons” who operate behind the scenes. That would be ample preparation for exercising national leadership in Nagatacho, the government district. If Ms Koike fulfils her mission of being a transformative Tokyo governor, she will be in a position to launch a bid for the premiership after 2020. And she will have sufficient executive experience to have a chance of making her tenure a success.
这个任务将非常艰巨，因为名为“To-cho”的东京市政厅以影响力极大的“导师”幕后操纵出名。这将是为小池百合子在永田町行使国家领导权的充分准备。如果小池百合子作为东京都知事能够大刀阔斧地改革，那就会有利于她在2020年之后竞选首相。届时她将拥有足够的行政经验，从而有可能在任职期间取得成功。