How can the world best combat global warming? When asked that question, many people will talk about the need to close coal-fired power stations, embrace electric cars, recycle our rubbish and eschew air travel. Some might also point out that it is not enough for reforms to occur only in the west — emerging economies are also crucial.
要抗击全球变暖，怎么做最好？在回答这个问题时，很多人都会谈到，要关闭燃煤发电厂、拥抱电动汽车、对垃圾进行回收利用、少坐飞机。有的人还会指出，只在西方进行改革是不够的——新兴经济体也很重要。
But if the former US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson is correct, there is another essential step that almost nobody is talking about: putting money into Chinese housing. Yes, you read that right. These days, the phrase “Chinese real estate” is usually mentioned by economists who are worried about bubbles. But Paulson is fascinated by another concern. Recent environmental studies suggest that about “40 per cent of carbon emissions currently come from buildings”, or so he told me over lunch earlier this month. Meanwhile, “roughly half of new buildings going up in the world [now] are going up in China”, he continued, because of the breathless pace of development.
然而，如果前美国财长汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)所言不差，还有一个重要方法几乎无人谈及：向中国住宅投入资金。是的，你没看错。最近经常有经济学家谈及“中国房地产”一词，他们担心的是泡沫。但保尔森感兴趣的是另一个方面。最近的环境研究显示，“目前40%的碳排放来自建筑物”——本月早些时候，他在一次午餐时这么跟我说。而且，他继续说道，“（现在）全球在建的新建筑大约一半建在中国”，原因在于中国的开发步伐太快。
Thus, if only the world could persuade China to construct those new buildings in an energy-efficient way, we might have the means to reduce global warming. Or, to put it another way, if you want to make the world more green, targeting the way that China constructs its buildings might be more effective than endlessly fretting about buildings in countries where the structures are already built.
因此，只要世界说服中国用节能的方式建造新楼，我们可能就有办法减轻全球变暖。或者换句话说，如果你希望让这个世界变得更环保，那么，比起时刻不停地担心各国已落成的建筑，着眼于中国的建筑方式或许会更有效。
Is this just a crazy idea? You might be tempted to think so. After all, Paulson shot to fame as the former Goldman Sachs CEO who became the Republican Treasury secretary and then had to deal with the subprime mortgage market shock of 2008. At the time, he seemed like a tough-talking, all-American financial mandarin, the man who created a self-styled policy “bazooka” — a $700bn stimulus package. (When a TV movie, Too Big to Fail, was made about the crisis Paulson was played by William Hurt at his most rugged.)
这只是一种疯狂的想法吗？你可能忍不住这么想。毕竟，保尔森之所以声名鹊起是因为这位高盛(Goldman Sachs)前首席执行官以共和党成员身份成为美国财长，接着不得不去解决2008年在美国房地产市场爆发的次贷危机。当时他的形象是一位说话强硬、纯美国的金融要人，他开创了自称为“火箭筒”(bazooka)的政策：7000亿美元的经济刺激计划。（在讲述这场危机的电视电影《大而不倒》(Too Big to Fail)中，威廉•赫特(William Hurt)饰演保尔森，塑造了一个最坚毅的角色。）
Paulson’s background is not an obvious platform from which to start a campaign to change the way that China builds its houses; least of all when other Republicans such as Donald Trump are winning votes with China-bashing. But Paulson is embarking on his mission via his own foundation, the Paulson Institute. His theory is that China, if it is ever going to turn green, needs to find ways to make environmentally suitable buildings more cost effective. So he is trying to raise finance from public and private investors, inside China and elsewhere, to subsidise the use of green products, as part of a range of other environmental initiatives. “If you look at China, the bad news is that in their energy mix, roughly 70 per cent is coal, 20 per cent is oil and only 10 per cent is renewables,” he argues. “But the good news is that there is huge opportunity — and building is just one example.”
保尔森的背景并不是特别适合开展一项旨在改变中国住宅建筑方式的运动；尤其是在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)等其他共和党人正借抨击中国争取选票的时候。但保尔森是通过自己的基金会——保尔森基金会(Paulson Institute)来开始这项使命的。他的理论是，如果中国要变得环保，就需要设法使环保建筑更具成本效益。因此，他正设法向公共和私人投资者——包括中国国内和世界其他地方——筹集资金，以补贴使用环保产品的做法，这是一系列环保倡议的一部分。“如果你看一看中国，坏消息是在中国的能源结构中，约70%为煤炭，20%是石油，只有10%是可再生能源，”他辩称，“但好消息是，这里机会巨大，建筑只是一个例子。”
Who knows if this might work? But it is intriguing on several levels. First, it highlights an oft-ignored point: that if we want to tackle climate change, issues such as domestic recycling or electric cars are only a tiny part of the mix. Second, it shows that old-fashioned philanthropy is no longer the only game in town; nor, for that matter, are multilateral funds (or World Bank largesse). Instead, the fashion these days is finding ways to get private investors to back socially worthy projects, via innovations such as “green” bonds. This is hippy idealism meets Goldman Sachs spreadsheets.
谁知道这是否有用？但它有几个方面颇有意思。首先，这突显出经常被遗忘的一点：如果我们希望应对气候变化，那么诸如国内垃圾回收或电动汽车等问题只占很小的角色。第二，这表明，老式的慈善不再是唯一的模式；多边资金（或者世界银行(World Bank)的巨额款项）也不是。相反，最近流行的是设法通过发行“绿色债券”等创新方式，争取私人投资者支持社会公益项目。这是嬉皮士的理想主义与高盛电子表格的相逢。
But there is a third aspect to all this: Paulson’s tale is a welcome example of middle-aged reinvention. Over lunch, he admitted that when he left office in 2008, he suffered a bout of the blues: without the adrenaline rush of power, it was tough to cope with the endless criticism of his policies. Once, former leaders in his position might head for the golf course; more recently, they have tried to establish general do-good foundations (such as the Clinton Global Initiative) or become consultants.
还有第三个方面：保尔森的故事是一个中年转型的可喜例子。在那次午餐时，他承认2008年卸任后他有一段时间情绪低落：没有了权力所带来的兴奋感，要面对无休止的批评——针对他所施行的政策——是很艰难的。过去，卸任的政要们可能会流连高尔夫球场；比较近的则设法成立慈善基金会（例如“克林顿全球倡议”(Clinton Global Initiative)）或担任顾问。
But Paulson’s strategy of picking a specific project — environmental challenges in China — seems unusually focused; today he exudes the air of a man who is profoundly at ease with himself. And who knows? He may end up doing some real good for the world too — either by getting more green buildings in China or even giving a new slant to the US-China relationship. (Unsurprisingly, Paulson is horrified by the tenor and tone of the Trump campaign and is supporting the candidacy of John Kasich.)
但保尔森选择了一个特定项目——中国的环境挑战——他这种策略显得目标非常明确；如今，他给人的感觉是非常自在。谁知道呢？最终他也可能为世界做出一些真正的好事——或者促成中国建造更多环保大楼，或者着重推动美中关系。（不出所料，保尔森对特朗普竞选运动中的思想和论调感到可怕，他支持约翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)。）
Either way, the sight of a US Treasury secretary who once grappled with American subprime housing woes now worrying about Chinese cement is unexpected — and oddly cheering. Financial history can move in some unexpected ways.
不管是哪种方式，看到一位曾经在应对美国次贷危机的美国财长如今在担心中国的钢筋水泥，既使人意外，也奇怪地令人欣喜。金融史可能会出现一些出人意料的变化。