For the avoidance of doubt, of course the Iraq of 2014 bears, in part, the imprint of the removal of Saddam Hussein 11 years ago. To say otherwise, as a recent editorial in this newspaper implies that I do, would be absurd.
首先要声明，2014年的伊拉克当然带有11年前推翻萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)所留下的印记。否认这一点是荒谬的，虽然《金融时报》最近一篇社论就暗指我否定这种观点。However, there are two important points that must also be recognised.
不过，人们也必须抓住两个重点。We cannot ignore the fact that Isis, the jihadist group advancing across Iraq, rebuilt itself and organised the Iraq operation from the chaos in Syria. Isis and other al-Qaeda-type groups in Iraq were flat on their back four years ago, having been comprehensively beaten by a combination of US and UK forces and Sunni tribes. The civil war in Syria allowed them to get back on their feet. So the first point is that non-intervention is also a decision with consequences. In the case of Syria those consequences have been dire, and as security chiefs in the UK and Europe are warning, they pose a real threat to our security.
我们不能忽视一个事实，正在伊拉克攻城掠地的圣战组织“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”（Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant，简称Isis）是借叙利亚骚乱东山再起，组织起伊拉克作战行动的。4年前，英美部队和逊尼派部落合力将Isis及伊拉克境内其他基地式组织全面击溃。这些势力本已倒下，叙利亚内战又让他们站了起来。因此第一个重点是，不干涉政策也会带来种种后果。就叙利亚冲突而言，这些后果是可怕的，而且正如英国和欧洲安全部门的负责人们所警告的，它们对我们的安全构成切实威胁。
Second, no analysis of the Middle East today makes sense unless we examine the impact of the Arab revolutions overturning the old regimes. It is odd to argue that revolution would not have come to Iraq. And surely Saddam Hussein’s response would have been more like that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, than that of Hosni Mubarak. Whatever decision had been taken in 2003, in 2014 we would be facing a major challenge.
第二个重点是，只有仔细研究颠覆了旧政权的阿拉伯革命所带来的影响，分析当今中东局势才有意义。认为革命不会在伊拉克发生是匪夷所思的。而且萨达姆•侯赛因的反应肯定更像叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)，而不是胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)。不管我们在2003年作过什么决策，2014年我们都会面对一个重大挑战。There is a tendency to write of the Saddam Hussein time in Iraq as if he were a force for stability and peace. Just to remind ourselves: he began the Iraq-Iran war in which there were more than 1m casualties, many dying from chemical weapons, something which then played a part in pushing Iran towards its nuclear programme; he invaded Kuwait; he used chemical weapons in a genocidal attack against the Kurds; he excluded the Shia majority; and he persecuted the Marsh Arabs. The region’s problems are the result of deep-seated issues that, with the removal of those regimes, have now come to the surface.
现在出现了一种倾向，在写到萨达姆•侯赛因时代的伊拉克时，作者们将他描述得好像是维持稳定与和平的一股力量。我只想提醒大家：是他发动了两伊战争，这场战争导致上百万人伤亡，许多人死于化学武器，这是促使伊朗发展核计划的起因之一；他入侵了科威特；他在对库尔德人发动的种族清洗中使用化学武器，他镇压人口占多数的什叶派；他还迫害“沼泽阿拉伯人”(Marsh Arabs)。当今中东局势是一些深层问题导致的，随着旧政权被推翻，所有问题也浮上水面。That is the point I am making. I am not seeking to persuade people about the decision in 2003. I am trying to convince them that the fundamental challenge is not the product of that decision or indeed the decision in Syria. It is a challenge of immense complexity that has not originated in anything we have done since this challenge burst fully on to our consciousness after the attacks of September 11 2001. Its origin lies in the toxic mix of bad politics and bad religion that is not confined to Iraq or Syria but is spread across not just the Middle East but also the world.
这就是我想表达的观点。我不是在说服人们支持我们在2003年作出的决策。我是在努力让大家明白，当前的根本挑战并不是当时的决策所引发的，甚至也不是后来对叙利亚的决策所引发的。这是一个带有巨大复杂性的挑战，2001年9月11日袭击事件发生后我们充分意识到了这一挑战的存在，它的产生绝不是因为我们在这一事件后所采取的任何措施。其源头是糟糕的政治与糟糕的宗教所构成的有毒混合体，这一混合体并不局限于伊拉克或叙利亚，它不但蔓延到中东，还会扩散到全世界。The reason we got into such difficulty in Iraq, as in Afghanistan, was precisely because once the dictatorship was removed, extremist Islamist forces then made progress extraordinarily difficult. That is their hideous impact the world over. The fundamental challenge today arises not from the decisions of 2003 or those of 2014. It is the challenge of Islamist extremism and it is global.
我们之所以在伊拉克遇到这样的困难，就像在阿富汗一样，正是因为一旦独裁政府被推翻，伊斯兰极端势力就会跳出来，让局面变得异常棘手，难以取得进展。这是他们对全世界的可怕影响。今日的根本挑战并不源于2003年的决策或2014年的决策。这是伊斯兰极端主义的挑战，而且是全球性的。It is a challenge we cannot avoid. Its outcome will dramatically affect our own security. We may be war weary and want to disengage but the people we are fighting do not share that weariness. Leave aside Iraq or Syria; look at Pakistan today. It has powerful institutions; it has a functioning democracy. Yet be in no doubt, the struggle it is waging is existential. Nigeria was two decades ago a model of religious tolerance. Today it is on the rack of extremism. Even in western societies, there are tensions that are real and dangerous.
我们无法逃避这一挑战。其后果将大大影响我们的安全。我们或许厌倦了战争，想要从中脱离，但我们的斗争对手没感到疲倦。且不谈伊拉克或叙利亚，看看今日的巴基斯坦。它拥有强大的机构，民主体制也运行良好。然而毫无疑问，它仍在进行关乎生死存亡的斗争。20年前尼日利亚曾是宗教宽容的典范，如今它却深受极端主义的危害。即使在西方社会，这种紧张也真实存在，且十分危险。The bad news is that this issue is not going away. That is why I am speaking about it. Since leaving office I have spent a large part of my time studying it and through my foundation trying to counter it.
坏消息是这一问题不会消失。这也是我谈论此事的原因。自从离任后，我大部分时间都在研究这一问题，并通过我的基金会努力化解这一问题。Short term, we have to do what we can to rescue the situation in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, without inclusive government this will be hard to do. The US is right in demanding political change as the price of its engagement. In Syria, an outright win for either side is no longer sensible; the majority of Syrians just want the torment to end.
短期来看，我们必须尽一切努力挽回伊拉克和叙利亚的局势。在伊拉克，不建立一个包容的政府将很难达成此目的。作为介入的条件，美国要求伊方推行政治变革是正确的。而在叙利亚，任意一方都不太可能获得绝对胜利；绝大部分叙利亚人只想结束苦难历程。Long term, we have to have the right mixture of soft and hard power responses, which fights this extremism wherever it is conducting its terror campaigns. We must deal with the root cause of the problem which lies in the formal and informal systems that educate young people in a closed-minded approach to religion and culture.
长期来看，我们必须恰当地结合运用软实力与硬实力，无论极端势力在何地展开恐怖活动，都要与之斗争。我们必须从根源入手解决问题，而问题的根源就在于那些培养年轻人形成保守的宗教和文化观念的正规与非正规体制。The good news is that this extremism does not represent the majority of Muslims. As the recent elections in both Iraq and Afghanistan show, where despite threats, violence and terror, people came out to vote in their millions. These people want to be free: free of dictators and free of terror. We should help them. It is in our interests that they succeed.
好消息是这种极端主义并不代表绝大多数穆斯林。从伊拉克与阿富汗最近举行的选举即可看出，虽然面对威胁、暴力和恐怖，还是有数百万人来投票。这些人想要自由，他们想摆脱独裁者，摆脱恐怖。我们应该帮助他们。他们的成功符合我们的利益。