An ironic contradiction is likely to define the global economic community’s convocation in Davos this week as it awaits Donald Trump’s inauguration. There has not been so much anxiety about US global leadership or about the sustainability of market-oriented democracy at any time in the past half-century. Yet with markets not only failing to swoon as predicted but rallying strongly after both the Brexit vote and after Mr Trump’s victory, the animal spirits of business are running hot.
在等待唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)就职典礼之际，一个颇具讽刺意味的矛盾很可能将定义本周在达沃斯召开的全球经济共同体大会。对于美国全球领导力或市场导向民主制度的可持续性，过去半个世纪都未曾出现过如此多的焦虑感。然而，在英国公投退欧以及特朗普胜选之后，全球金融市场非但未像预测那样暴跌，反而出现了强劲反弹，企业的“动物精神”正在猛烈燃烧。Many chief executives are coming to believe that — what ever the president-elect’s weaknesses — the pro-business attitude of his administration, combined with Republican control of Congress, will lead to a new era of support for business, along with much lower taxes and regulatory burdens. This in turn, it is argued, will drive a big rise in investment and hiring, setting off a virtuous circle of economic growth and rising confidence.
许多首席执行官开始相信——无论这位当选总统有多少缺点——新政府的“亲企业”态度，加上共和党对国会的控制，将带来一个支持企业的新时代，同时还有税负和监管负担的大幅降低。有人认为，这将继而推动投资和就业岗位大幅增加，开启一个经济增长和信心提升的良性循环。
While it has to be admitted that such a scenario looks more plausible now than it did on election day, I believe that it is very much odds-off. More likely, the current run of happy markets and favourable sentiment will be seen, with the benefit of hindsight, as a sugar high. John Maynard Keynes was right to emphasise the great importance of animal spirits, but economists have also been right to emphasise that it is political and economic fundamentals that dominate in the medium and long term. History is replete with examples of populist authoritarian policies that produced short-run benefits but very poor long-run outcomes.
虽然必须承认，比起大选日那天，这一前景如今看起来似乎更可信，但我认为可能性非常小。更有可能的是，如果有后见之明的话，当前的牛市和有利情绪将被视为一种“食糖后兴奋”(sugar high)。约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)对动物精神重要性的强调是正确的，但经济学家们强调从中长期来看起主导作用的是政治和经济基本面也没有错。历史上关于民粹主义独裁政策产生短期好处、但带来极糟长期后果的例子不胜枚举。
The new US president will be operating on a very weak political foundation, is very unlikely to be able to deliver the results he has promised to key constituencies, and seems likely to take dangerous gambles in the international arena. This makes it probable that a cycle of growing disillusion, disappointment and disapproval will set in within a year.
特朗普执政的政治基础非常薄弱，他不太可能有能力兑现其对关键选民群体许下的承诺，且很可能在国际舞台上采取冒险行动。因此很可能在一年之内出现一个幻灭、失望和不满不断高涨的循环。Mr Trump will be the first new president in US history with more measured public disapproval than approval. No outsider can know the validity of allegations regarding his campaign’s involvement with Russia, but the shadow of possible scandal is far more present in the pre-inaugural press than it was even before Richard Nixon’s second term in the White House. And the continued operation of the president-elect’s business interests by his family offers potential for at least the allegation of serious misconduct.
特朗普将成为美国历史上首个遭遇公众反对多于赞同的新总统。局外人不可能知晓有关特朗普竞选活动与俄罗斯有牵连的指控的真实性，但新闻媒体在他就职前爆出丑闻的可能性，甚至比理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)白宫第二任期之前更大。特朗普家族继续运营特朗普的商业帝国，至少使其将来遭遇严重渎职指控成为可能。Nor is Mr Trump likely to be able to keep his promises to key middle-class constituencies. The consequence of the very weak Mexican peso, which is one of the results of his rhetoric is more Mexican immigration to the US and more businesses choosing Mexico over Ohio as a location for production.
特朗普也不大可能有能力兑现其对重要的中产阶层选民的承诺。他的言论导致的后果之一是墨西哥比索暴跌，而后者造成的后果是更多墨西哥人移民到美国、以及更多企业选择在墨西哥而非俄亥俄州建厂。Moreover, it is not possible to repeal Obamacare without taking health insurance away from millions of Americans and placing new burdens on those with pre-existing conditions. If Mr Trump goes through with proposed increases in tariffs the result will be lower real wages and incomes as prices rise faster than pay. All in Congress agree that tax reform will not happen in a few months and it is impossible to reconcile the president-elect’s stated goals of big reductions in corporate and top rates, a fair distribution of the benefits of tax cuts and preventing a huge increase in federal debt.
此外，若废除奥巴马医改(Obamacare)，数百万美国人将失去医疗保险，还会给那些已有疾病的人增加新的负担。如果特朗普坚持实施其提出的提高关税政策，结果将导致实际工资和收入下降，因为物价上涨速度比工资增速更快。国会议员普遍认为，税收改革不会在几个月后实施，特朗普既定的几个目标——大幅削减企业税率和最高税率，公平分配减税带来的好处，防止联邦债务大幅增加——不可能同时实现。Finally, Mr Trump will be taking some big risks. Seeking to use the One China policy as a lever for extracting trade concessions from Beijing risks serious confrontation and will complicate co-operation on critical issues such as North Korean nuclear proliferation.
最后，特朗普将冒一些很大的风险。试图利用“一个中国”政策为筹码换取北京在贸易方面让步，可能引发严重的对抗，而且将使在防止朝鲜核扩散等关键问题上的合作复杂化。Questioning the value of the EU and Nato risks undermining our principal democratic allies at a time when they are already politically fragile. Unilateral imposition of tariffs or enactment of a tax system that subsidises exports and penalises imports risks both retaliatory protectionism and a spiking dollar, with potentially grave consequences for the global economy .
质疑欧盟(EU)和北约(Nato)的价值有可能在这些组织已然遭遇政治脆弱之际破坏我们最重要的民主盟友。单方面施加关税或实施补贴出口、惩罚进口的税收制度，有可能既招致报复性的贸易保护主义，又引发美元急剧升值，或将给全球经济带来严重后果。And threatening businesses, as happened with the attack on the pharmaceutical industry during Mr Trump’s last press conference, risks significant increases in uncertainty and even questions about the rule of law.
威胁企业——如特朗普在上次新闻发布会期间对制药业的抨击——可能导致不确定性大幅增加，甚至引发对法治的怀疑。Animal spirits are as fickle as they are important. Right now they certainly are an impetus to economic growth. The speed with which they changed after the Brexit vote and after the US election should be cautionary. They can easily change again. If ever there was a time to hope for the best but plan for the worst it is now.
动物精神很重要，但也变化无常。眼下，它们无疑是经济增长的推动力。它们在英国退欧和美国大选之后的变化速度应该引起我们警惕。它们很容易会再次变化。如果说什么时候应该抱最好的希望但做最坏的打算的话，那就是现在。The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary
本文作者为哈佛大学(Harvard)查尔斯?W?艾略特大学教授(Charles W. Eliot University Professor)，曾任美国财政部长