为什么美韩导弹部署将刺激中国开发先进武器

英语社 人气:2.49W

为什么美韩导弹部署将刺激中国开发先进武器

The United States and South Korea’s recent decision to counter North Korean missile capabilities with an advanced system on the Korean peninsula left China “deeply dissatisfied” and ready to take “necessary measures” a defense ministry spokesman said at the end of July.

美国和韩国近期决定在朝鲜半岛部署先进的武器系统,以反制朝鲜的导弹力量。此举引发了中国的严重不满。中国国防部的一名发言人在七月底表示,中国已经准备好了采取“必要措施”加以应对。

In the month since the agreement was announced many analysts have wondered how Beijing’s anger will manifest.

在美韩宣布该决定的当月,许多分析家都思考过北京将会如何表达其愤怒。

One common sentiment is that the strategic collateral imposed on China by the missile system called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense may force Chinese diplomats to reconsider their inaction on North Korea’s nuclear efforts.

一种常见的观点是,这个被称为末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD,萨德)的导弹系统对中国造成了战略上的附带伤害,也许会迫使中国外交人员重新审视他们在朝核问题上的不作为。

Others fueled by an earlier Chinese warning that THAAD could “destroy” relations with South Korea “in an instant” argue that China may seek to discipline Seoul with economic repercussions.

另一种观点,基于中国发出的“萨德有可能会‘瞬间摧毁’中韩关系”的警告,论证称中国可能寻求以经济上的回击来对首尔方面进行惩戒。

Such responses fail to encompass the full scope of China’s domestic and foreign policy thinking.

这种反应不能全面涵盖中国内政外交政策考量。

China will not move in a quick or meaningful fashion to oppose Pyongyang — Beijing fears destabilizing the Kim regime which would risk expanding the U.S. presence in the region far beyond THAAD deployment and potentially spur an influx of impoverished North Korean refugees into China.

中国不会采取迅速或有意义的方式反对平壤——北京惧怕推翻金家政权可能会导致的风险:美国在该地区的势力会扩张至远超出萨德部署的范围,以及刺激潜在的朝鲜贫民潮涌入中国。

In fact China’s THAAD-inspired refusal to support a U.N. Security Council measure on recent North Korean missile launches suggests that negotiations are even less attainable than before.

事实上,中国因受萨德刺激而拒绝支持联合国安委会就最近朝鲜发射导弹采取措施,表明谈判比以往更加难以实现。

Likewise THAAD deployment damages Chinese trust in Seoul on security issues but it does not obscure the two countries’ growing economic interdependence.

同样地,萨德的部署也损害了中国在安全议题上对于首尔方面的信任,但不会令两国经济上的日渐相互依赖变得前途未卜。

While South Korea is asymmetrically dependent on economic relations with China it is also China’s second largest trade partner and a major source of foreign direct investment.

虽然这种经济依赖是非对称的,韩国更多地依赖与中国的经济关系,但它仍然是中国的第二大贸易伙伴和一个主要的外国直接投资来源地。

Though Beijing will seek to coerce South Korea by publicly considering sanctions the risk of collateral from major economic retaliation is thus unwarrantable for China especially in the context of a slowing domestic economy.

尽管中国会以公开考虑制裁措施来试图迫使韩国就范,但进行大规模经济报复的附带风险也是中国所没有把握的,尤其是在中国国内经济放缓的大背景下。