The world's second-largest initial public offering this year after Facebook had a good start last week. Shares in palm-oil producer Felda Global Ventures have jumped 16% following its Thursday debut on Malaysia's stock exchange.
马来西亚棕榈油企业Felda Global Ventures上周四在该国证券交易所公开上市以后股价大涨16%。作为今年排在Facebook之后的全球第二大首次公开募股(IPO)交易，Felda上周的亮相可以说相当抢眼。What is happening at Felda that is so different from Facebook, whose shares are down almost 20% since its shares were listed in May?
Facebook自今年5月上市以来，股价已累计下跌近20%。是什么原因导致Felda上市后的表现与Facebook大相径庭？Of course, there is price. Facebook's much-hyped listing valued the company at more than 100 times next year's expected earnings. Felda's IPO priced it in line with peers at about 14 times next year's estimated profits. That may have left some value on the table.
毋庸置疑的是，双方的差别之一在于发行价。Facebook大肆炒作的上市方案给该公司定下的估值水平是其明年预期盈利的100多倍。而Felda在IPO中定下的估值水平和同行大致相当，约为其明年预期利润的14倍。这样的定价水平给股价未来的上涨留有一定空间。
Beyond valuation, though, buyers of either stock should consider their fellow investors. Facebook insiders - employees and early investors - hold about three-quarters of the shares. Most of those are locked up for six months. That is a drag on the share price because it suggests a flood of stock could hit the market when the lockup period expires.
不过，除了估值，两只股票的买家都应该考虑其他投资者的情况。Facebook的内部人士（员工和早期投资者）持有大约四分之三的股份。其中大部分股票的限售期为六个月。这对Facebook股价的上涨形成拖累，因为这意味着当限售期结束时将有大批股票涌入市场。In Asia, too, lockups are common. But it is often so-called cornerstone investors, typically institutional investors, who agree to buy big blocks of shares and hold them for a set period. That reassures individual investors. In a bull market, cornerstone investors are eager to sign up because they know they can turn a profit down the line. Recently, however, volatile markets have made it tougher to pin down blue-chip investors, which is one reason why this year has seen a record number of IPOs by value pulled in Asia.
在亚洲市场，规定新股限售期的做法也很常见。受限售期约束的往往是所谓“基础投资者”（一般都是机构投资者），这些投资者同意买入大量股份并在一定时间内持有，这能起到稳定个人投资者信心的作用。在牛市中，基础投资者急于签订入股协议，因为他们明白未来换手能有利可图。然而最近波动的市场令成功签下基础投资者的难度加大，这也是今年亚洲地区推迟上市的公司数量创下纪录的原因之一。Felda bucked that trend partly because of the seeming stability of its locked-in investors. Post-IPO, about 70% of Felda's shares are owned by the Malaysian federal government, state governments and a group of investors dominated by a handful of state pension funds. The cornerstone investors and the states can't sell for six months. But unlike fickle venture funds and employees who hold Facebook, state pension funds and local governments are less likely to quickly flip their shares.
Felda能逆势上涨的部分原因是其基础投资者看上去较为稳定。IPO之后，Felda大约70%的股份由马来西亚联邦政府、州政府以及其他一些投资机构（以州养老基金为主）持有。基础投资者和州政府在六个月内不能出售股票。但和善变的风投基金以及持有Facebook股票的员工不同，州养老基金和地方政府不太可能迅速将持有的股票换手。Less than a third of Felda's IPO shares were sold to domestic individual investors, Malaysian and regional institutions, local funds or high net-worth individuals approved as investors by Malaysia's trade ministry.
在Felda此次发行的新股中，只有不到三分之一的股票卖给了国内个人投资者、马来西亚中央和地方机构、当地基金或经马来西亚贸工部审批被视为高净值个人的投资者。There certainly are reasons for investors to be cautious about Felda. Like Facebook, Felda's profits fell in the final reporting period before its listing. Felda says revenue will be flat for the next three or four years. Macquarie also notes that Felda's palms are lower yielding than rivals and says margins at its downstream refining operations are likely to come under pressure from competitors in Indonesia.
投资者当然有理由对Felda持谨慎态度。和Facebook一样，在上市前的最后一个报告期内Felda的利润出现下滑。Felda表示未来三到四年公司营收将保持平稳。麦格理(Macquarie)还指出，Felda的棕榈油产量低于竞争对手，其下游炼油业务的利润率可能面临来自印尼竞争对手的压力。But an overhang from locked-in shareholders isn't a big concern. Malaysia's government is keen for Felda's IPO to be a success. Locked up or otherwise, government shareholders are unlikely to make a swift exit.
但投资者不必过于担心基础投资者会尽快将手中股票转手卖出的问题。马来西亚政府渴望看到Felda的IPO能取得成功。无论是否存在限售期，政府股东都不大可能迅速退出。