The oil price may be falling and global demand is “remarkably” subdued, according to a report last week from the International Energy Agency. But this has not stopped the former chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward, from issuing an uncomfortable warning.
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)上周发布的一份报告显示，全球石油需求“明显”下滑，油价也在下跌。但这并不能阻止英国石油(BP)前首席执行官唐熙华(Tony Hayward)发出了令人不安的警告。
In an interview with the FT, Mr Hayward, who these days runs an oil company in Iraqi Kurdistan, worries that international sanctions against Russia’s oil sector are storing up trouble for the west. They risk cutting investment and damaging supplies from the world’s third-largest producer. The threat may have been masked by increases in American liquid petroleum production, which has surged above its 1970 zenith. But the US may not go on rising for ever, Mr Hayward notes. And when that happens, where will the world find its next new source of supply?
唐熙华目前管理着伊拉克库尔德斯坦的一家石油公司。在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，他表示，国际社会针对俄罗斯石油行业的制裁正在给西方埋下越来越多隐患。这些制裁可能会削减这个全球第三大产油国的得到的投资并破坏其供应。这一威胁可能已被美国液态石油产量增加所掩盖——美国的液态石油产量已飙升至超过上世纪70年代峰值的水平，但唐熙华指出，美国的产量可能不会永远增长下去。到那时，全球将在哪里找到下一个新的供应源？It is a good question. Producing oil has become harder both for reasons of geology and politics; a crude price stuck around $100 per barrel is evidence enough. It may become harder still. Talk about an “age of abundance” is justified only from a North American perspective. Elsewhere it is a different story: one of decline in fading regions such as the North Sea, and political and security threats in countries from Iraq to Iran and Venezuela. Since 2005, all of the increase in the world’s crude production has come from the US.
这是一个好问题。由于地质和政治原因，石油生产变得更加困难；原油价格徘徊在每桶100美元左右就足以说明问题。未来难度可能会变得更大。有一种我们身处“富足时代”的说法，但其合理性只是从北美的角度而言。在其他地区则是另一番情景：北海等地区产量日益衰落，从伊拉克到伊朗和委内瑞拉等多国面临政治和安全威胁。自2005年以来，全球原油产量的增量都来自美国。
Looking ahead a few years, nothing is likely to change. Global oil demand will continue to go up over the long term as the emerging economies become steadily wealthier. Supply, however, will not rise in lockstep. The IEA predicted last year that over 2012-18 the largest contributors of new supplies to world markets, after the US and Canada, would be Iraq and Brazil. But companies in Brazil are struggling with the technical challenges of its deepwater fields and political interference. Iraq is in chaos. Neither country can be relied upon.
未来几年，一切可能都不会改变。长期而言，随着新兴市场的不断富有，全球石油需求将继续上涨。然而，供应不会随之增加。国际能源署去年预测，2012年至2018年，除美国和加拿大以外，全球市场新供应的最大贡献者将是伊拉克和巴西。但巴西企业正艰难应对深水油田的技术挑战和政治干预。伊拉克仍身陷混乱。这两个国家都没法依赖。Mr Hayward is right to worry about security of supply. Fortunately, however, the developed world need not panic quite yet. The new sanctions on Russia will take time to bite. They do not yank existing barrels off the market. Rather, they make it harder for Russia to develop shale or push out the frontiers of exploration into the Arctic – activity that will only drive production some years in the future. The risk that Mr Hayward identifies is more akin to a slow-moving ratchet than a 1973-style sudden price spike. The west has time to plot its response.
唐熙华对供应安全的担忧是正确的。然而，幸运的是，发达国家现在还不需要那么恐慌。针对俄罗斯的新制裁将需要时间产生影响。这些制裁不会将现有的石油从市场撤走，而是将令俄罗斯更难开发页岩资源，或者将勘探前沿推进至北极地区，而俄罗斯页岩开发和北极勘探都只是提升未来石油产量的活动。唐熙华眼中的风险更类似于一种缓慢的恶化，而非1973年那种突然的价格飙升。西方有时间计划其应对措施。For consuming countries, that means doing what they can to strengthen their own production and infrastructure. The US, for example, should approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada, and help its oil industry by allowing exports of crude. Governments must ensure they do not throttle their industries with excessive taxation.
对于石油消费国而言，这意味着尽其所能增强本国的产量和基础设施。例如，美国应批准加拿大Keystone XL石油管道的建设，并允许原油出口，助力其石油业。政府必须确保他们不会通过过高的税收遏制本国石油行业。Abroad, the US should do more to help the development of alternative sources of supply – including the shale reserves of countries such as China and Argentina. Diplomatically, the answer is clearly not to appease Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and thus leave his conduct in Ukraine unchallenged. But Washington and its allies should try harder to stabilise failing producing states, such as Libya and Iraq.
在海外，美国应采取更多措施帮助开发替代供应来源，包括中国和阿根廷等国的页岩储备。从外交上来说，安抚俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)，对其在乌克兰的行为睁一眼闭一眼，显然不是正确的做法。但美国及其盟友应更努力地稳定利比亚和伊拉克等产量正在衰退的产油国。Consumers must be encouraged to use oil more thriftily – either through higher taxes or regulations enforcing fuel efficiency. Fuel subsidies must be cut – especially in the Middle East and Asia. Lastly, governments should continue the search for alternatives, whether biofuels or electric vehicles.
我们必须鼓励消费者在使用石油方面更为节俭，要么通过提高税收，要么执行燃油效率方面的监管要求。必须削减燃油补贴，特别是在中东和亚洲。最后，政府应继续寻找替代能源方案，不管是生物燃料还是电动汽车。We have been living through a period of calm in oil markets, in spite of the Arab uprisings and the turmoil in Ukraine. This will not last for ever. A wise world would plan ahead.
尽管阿拉伯爆发暴动，乌克兰也出现动荡，但我们一直生活在石油市场的平静期。这种状况不会永远持续下去。明智的世界会未雨绸缪。