That commodity prices are important for emerging markets should not come as a surprise. New research from Fitch Ratings sheds light on just how important they are, however, even though some large EM nations such as China and India are net commodity importers.
大宗商品价格对新兴市场很重要，这一点不应该出乎意料。然而，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)的新研究揭示了它们究竟有多重要，尽管一些大型的新兴市场国家（如中国和印度）是大宗商品净进口国。
“The dramatic fall in commodity prices since mid-2014 . . . has been the single most important factor behind [Fitch’s] wave of 13 EM sovereign rating downgrades in 2015 and record 18 in 2016,” said Ed Parker, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa sovereigns at the US rating agency.
“从2014年中期起，大宗商品价格戏剧性下降……成为导致惠誉在2015年下调13个新兴市场主权评级、2016年迄今已创下18个的新纪录的最重要因素，”这家美国评级机构的欧洲、中东和非洲主权业务负责人埃德.帕克(Ed Parker)表示。
Given that commodity prices, as measured by the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity index, are up 38 per cent since their mid-January lows, the analysis suggests the future will be brighter for EMs — even if things are likely to get worse before they get better.
鉴于大宗商品价格（按标普高盛大宗商品指数(S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity index)衡量）已自1月中旬的低点回升38%，这项分析似乎表明，新兴市场的未来将更加光明，即使情况在好转之前可能变得更糟。
The Fitch analysis suggests the drop in commodity prices has led to a 20 per cent decline in the typical emerging market country’s terms of trade — the ratio of export prices to import prices — since 2014.
惠誉的分析似乎表明，自2014年以来，大宗商品价格下跌已导致典型的新兴市场国家的贸易条件（出口价格与进口价格的比率）下降20%。
This deterioration has resulted in “a transfer of real income to the rest of the world”, says Mr Parker and, typically, a decline in economic growth, and current account and budget balances.
帕克表示，这种条件恶化导致“实际收入被转移到世界其他地方”，通常还带来经济增长以及经常账户和预算平衡减弱。
“Countries in weaker starting positions [ie those without buffers such as fiscal and current account surpluses, low debt levels and accumulated assets] may have to cut spending to reduce twin deficits, exacerbating the impact of the terms of trade [reversal] on the economic cycle,” said Mr Parker.
“起点较弱的国家（即没有财政和经常账户盈余、低债务水平和累积资产作为缓冲的国家）可能不得不削减支出以减少双赤字，加剧贸易条件（逆转）对经济周期的影响，”帕克表示。
Overall, Fitch found that the terms of trade fell 19 per cent in 2014 and 2015 for the EM countries it rates, and a further 1 per cent so far this year.
总体而言，惠誉发现其评级的新兴市场国家的贸易条件在2014年和2015年下降了19%，今年迄今进一步下降1%。
Middle Eastern, African and Latin American countries, alongside Russia, have seen the largest deterioration, while China and India have seen improvements in their terms of trade.
中东、非洲和拉美国家与俄罗斯出现了最大的恶化，而中国和印度的贸易条件有所改善。
These dynamics correlate highly with Fitch’s rating model. The rise and fall in the EM-wide terms of trade has been mirrored by changes in the rating agency’s sovereign credit index, which measures the average EM rating.
这些动态与惠誉的评级模型高度相关。新兴市场贸易条件的上升和下降呼应了这家评级机构主权信用指数的变化，该指数衡量新兴市场的平均评级。
Given that commodity prices have risen since January, this suggests the resultant improvement in the terms of trade of commodity exporters should also feed through into stronger economic growth and strengthened sovereign ratings, given the correlation between these measures. But Mr Parker foresees more gloom in the near term.
鉴于大宗商品价格自今年1月以来上涨，这似乎表明，由于这些衡量标准之间的相关性，大宗商品出口国贸易条件随之出现的改善，也应该带来更强劲的经济增长和主权评级。但帕克预计在近期内会有更多坏消息。
“The full impact [of commodity price changes] can take time to feed through to credit metrics, as countries initially draw on reserves and financing options, and due to lags and informal buffers in the economy,” he said.
“大宗商品价格变化的全面影响可能需要一段时间才能反映到信用指标上，因为各国起初都会利用储备金和融资选项，还有就是经济中的滞后和非正式缓冲等因素，”他说。
However, the prospects for emerging markets should begin to pick up, Mr Parker added.
然而，帕克补充说，新兴市场的前景应该开始出现起色。
“If commodity prices slowly recover, this should start to feed through to stronger economic performance. The strong historical relationship between the terms of trade and EM sovereign ratings suggests the outlook should then start to brighten,” he concluded.
“如果大宗商品价格缓慢恢复，它应该开始带来更强劲的经济表现。贸易条件与新兴市场主权评级之间的强有力历史关系似乎表明，届时前景应该开始明朗，”他最后总结说。