Chinese companies have been stepping up their global investment spree in the past 12 months. Mergers and acquisitions by private Chinese investors are becoming the key drivers of the country’s outbound direct investment.
过去12个月里，中国企业的全球大举投资行动一直在加码。中国私营领域的投资者发起的并购开始成为中国对外直接投资(ODI)的主要推动力。
In what has been called the ‘Third Wave’ of China outbound direct investment (ODI), the focus of investment has been on companies in the developed economies in high-tech and services. Previous ‘waves’ have focused on supporting developing economies and investing in commodities and extraction industries.
在所谓“第三波”中国对外直接投资中，重点并购对象是发达经济体中的高科技与服务行业企业。在前几波中国对外直接投资中，投资重心在于支持发展中经济体，投资大宗商品和采矿业。The increase in China’s ODI is driven by the central government’s strong encouragement for domestic companies to invest overseas in a bid to boost theirinternational competitiveness. The added benefit to Beijing of ODI is it utilises surplus domestic capacity and helps to slow the rapid build-up of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which reached a record $3.8tn at the end of 2014.
中国对外直接投资增加的推动力，来自中央政府强烈鼓励国内企业通过到海外投资来提升自身国际竞争力。对外直接投资对北京方面的附加好处是，它能利用国内过剩产能，还有利于放缓外汇储备的积累速度。2014年底，中国的外汇储备余额达到创纪录的3.8万亿美元。
Slow global economic recovery and depreciating foreign currencies has provided a decent tailwind to this endeavour.
全球经济复苏缓慢以及外币贬值，为中国的这一努力提供了不小的便利。China’s ODI grew 19 per cent year-on-year on average between 2009 and 2014. This compared with foreign direct investment (FDI) into China growing on average 5 per cent year-on-year during the same period. Last year, China’s ODI reached $116 bn, almost the same reaching that of the FDI total of $120bn
2009年至2014年，中国对外直接投资平均每年增长19%，同期流入中国的外国直接投资(FDI)的年均增速仅为5%。去年，中国的对外直接投资达1160亿美元，几乎接近2014年1200亿美元的FDI流入量。Some of the landmark and headline making deals we have seen include the $2.3bn acquisition by Lenovo of IBM’s x86 Server business. Another deal involved Anbang Insurance teaming up with Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc to purchase The Waldorf Astoria New York hotel for $1.95bn. Lastly but not least, in financial services, ICBC purchased a 60 per cent share of South African Standard Bank for $690m.
我们看到了一些具有里程碑意义、登上媒体头条的并购交易，包括联想(Lenovo)以23亿美元收购IBM的x86 服务器业务，还有安邦保险(Anbang Insurance)携手希尔顿全球控股有限公司(Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc)以19.5亿美元收购纽约的华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)。还有一项重要交易发生在金融服务业——中国工商银行(ICBC)以6.9亿美元收购南非标准银行(South African Standard Bank) 60%的股份。So, what is the outlook for China’s ODI and are there any new trends to watch out for?
那么，中国对外直接投资的前景如何，有哪些新趋势值得关注？Firstly, in our view China’s ODI will to continue to grow by around 20 per cent a year, with China overtaking the US as the world’s largest outbound direct investor in the next few years. This year, the pace of investment to accelerate, pushed by massive infrastructure investments in Asia and Europe envisioned in the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.
首先，我们认为，中国对外直接投资将继续以每年约20%的速度增长，中国在未来几年内会超过美国成为全球最大的对外直接投资国。今年，在“一带一路”战略构想的对亚洲和欧洲基础设施大举投资的推动下，对外投资速度将会加快。Secondly, Chinese companies will continue to shift their geographic and sector focus. The investment destination is changing away from Africa, Latin America and Asia. Chinese investors are now making strategic investment in developed markets, in particular the European Union and North America. Europe has recorded 14 per cent of China’s ODI in goods and services in the last five years.
其次，中国企业在对外直接投资中关注的地域和行业也会继续改变。投资的主要目的地将不再是非洲、拉美和亚洲。眼下中国投资者正对发达市场、尤其是欧盟(EU)和北美进行战略投资。过去5年，欧洲占到了中国商品和服务对外直接投资的14%。In addition, China’s ‘Third Wave’ ODI is shifting focus from acquiring natural resources in coal, oil and metals to infrastructure including rail, shipping and ports. They are now turning to agriculture, technologies, high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, real estate, services and brands. This is at an early stage, but growth rates are rapidly accelerating.
此外，中国“第三波”对外直接投资的重心，开始从收购煤炭、石油和金属等自然资源转向铁路、航运和港口等基础设施。现在，中国企业转向了农业、科技、高端制造、消费品、房地产、服务和品牌。这种转变仍处于早期阶段，但增速正显著加快。Finally, another important trend is that private investors are becoming the main driving force of ODI. State owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to do deals in the industrial, resources and energy sectors. Private owned enterprises (POEs) are investing in more value-added industry sectors such as agri-business, technology, high-end manufacturing and real estate in more countries and regions. They are looking for intellectual property and brands to bring back to the Chinese market.
最后，另一个重要趋势是私营领域的投资者开始成为中国对外直接投资的主要推动力。国企(SOE)继续在工业、资源和能源行业发起并购。民营企业(POE)开始对更多国家和地区的农业经营、科技、高端制造和房地产等附加值更高的行业进行投资。它们希望把知识产权和品牌带回到中国市场。Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become the fastest way for Chinese companies to tap foreign markets and move higher up the value chain. Foreign currency depreciation against the renminbi prices continue to provide a favourable environment for China’s M&A activities.
并购已成为中国企业打入外国市场、向价值链高端攀升的最快捷途径。外币对人民币贬值继续为中国企业的并购提供有利的环境。In the first quarter, transaction value of China’s outbound M&A deals surged 36 per cent to a historical high of $20.2bn, according to PwC. The number of deals jumped by 33 per cent year on year to a record high of 77, with privately owned enterprises accounting for 68 per cent of the M&As.
普华永道(PwC)数据显示，今年第一季度，中国企业对外并购交易额大增36%，创下202亿美元的历史新高。交易数量同比增加33%，达到创纪录的77个，其中68%的并购交易是由民企完成的。Real Estate is the top targeted industry for over deals valued at more than $1bn, with $12.2bn via four deals in 2015 Year-to-date.
交易额高于10亿美元的并购交易的头号目标行业是房地产，该行业今年迄今已通过4笔交易完成122亿美元的交易额。Fast moving consumer goods, brands and experiences such as tourism and leisure sectors are expected to feature prominently in the “third wave” of China outbound M&A. This is driven by increased disposable income and wealth creation.
在“第三波”中国对外并购中，快速消费品、品牌、以及旅游业与休闲行业等服务业有望成为一个突出特色。这背后的推动力来自人们可支配收入和财富的增加。We have seen also private equity make a meaningful contribution to the M&A activates for the first time. The deals in technology and consumer-related sectors accounted for more than half the total investment plans intended to align with the strategic direction of China’s wider economy. A similar trend was seen in deal values last year. There were 15 PEs and financial buyer deals valued at more than $1bn, another record.
我们也看到，私募股权基金第一次对并购活动做出重要的贡献。在旨在与中国宏观经济战略方向保持一致的所有投资计划中，科技与消费相关行业的交易占到了一半以上。去年的交易金额中也体现出了类似趋势。去年有15家私募股权基金和财务投资者进行了并购，交易金额总计逾10亿美元，也创下纪录。The opportunities, however, come with challenges. Acquiring value-added assets is likely to remain extremely difficult. Chinese companies are still not well understood overseas. Cultural integration can be a challenge. To adapt to these challenges we have seen private enterprises hiring local management, applying local operating models in a bid to retain talent and cut acquisition risk.
然而，机遇总是伴随着挑战。收购附加值型资产可能仍然极端困难。中国企业在海外仍得不到充分理解。文化融合可能是一种挑战。我们看到，为了适应这些挑战，民营企业雇佣了当地人才担任管理层，采取当地运营模式，以便留住人才并降低收购风险。China’s new wave of ODI is underpinned by the Chinese government actively reforming and deregulating its regulation of overseas investment. We can expect more developments in the near and mid-term. For instance, with Chinese companies speeding up their pace of overseas expansion, renminbi-denominated deals could be promoted in overseas mergers and expansions.
支撑中国新一波对外直接投资的，是中国政府积极地改革和放松对海外投资的监管。我们可以期待，这方面近期和中期会有更多进展。比如说，随着中国企业加快海外扩张步伐，以人民币计价的交易可能会在海外并购和扩张中得到推广。In particular, the expansion of China’s trading and capital investment space in regional economic cooperation would greatly facilitate further the internationalisation of China’s renminbi through deepening the pool of renminbi liquidity globally, more renminbi cross-border investment along with associated cross-border renminbi loans and other derivatives.
尤其是，随着在地区经济合作方面中国贸易与资本投资空间的扩大，全球范围内人民币流动性池子会加深，会产生更多跨境人民币投资，以及相关的跨境人民币贷款及其他衍生品，从而极大地推进人民币国际化。All in all, Chinese corporate overseas investment is supported by the central government and is helping to further open the economy at home and China’s participation in the global economy is a new era of global cooperation and a clear win-win story.
归根结底，中国企业海外投资得到了中央政府的支持，有利于在国内进一步放开经济，在国外推动中国参与全球经济之中。这是一个全球合作的新时代，会谱写出明显的双赢故事。Spencer Lake is Global Head of Capital Financing at HSBC
本文作者为汇丰(HSBC)环球资本融资主管