China’s economy is riding its strong momentum into the end of the year, with retail sales accelerating and industrial output slowing just a touch in November.
中国经济正以强劲势头迈向年尾，11月份零售总额加速增长，工业产出仅略微放缓。Following on previous figures that showed a jump in exports and subdued inflation, the data published yesterday confirmed that the world’s second-largest economy remained in good health and had once again defied predictions for a more pronounced slowdown.
继此前发布的数据显示出口出现飙升、通胀维持在较低水平之后，昨日发布的数据证实全球第二大经济体保持良好状态，再一次粉碎了外界对于放缓情况将更为严重的预测。Just a few months ago, analysts had expected that Chinese economic growth would tail off more sharply in the fourth quarter, but for now it appears to be close to its 7.8 per cent year-on-year pace of the third quarter. Industrial output increased 10 per cent in November from a year earlier, down from 10.3 per cent in October but above its average this year. Annual growth in fixed-asset investment edged down to 19.9 per cent in year-to-date terms from 20.1 per cent in October.
就在短短几个月前，分析师们曾预计，中国经济增长将在第四季度比较剧烈地回落，但现在看来，第四季度增长将接近第三季度7.8%的同比增幅。11月份，中国规模以上工业增加值同比增长10%，低于10月份的10.3%，但高于今年的平均值。今年头11个月的固定资产投资同比增幅为19.9%，略低于今年头10个月20.1%的同比增幅。
Retail sales topped expectations, expanding 13.7 per cent year-on-year in November, picking up from 13.3 per cent a month earlier.
零售总额增长超出预期，11月份同比增长13.7%，高于10月份13.3%的同比增幅。“Investment has softened but retail sales are strong and industrial production growth is still robust. Most people had expected growth to decline in the fourth quarter but now it’s likely to be even with the third quarter’s 7.8 per cent,” said Lu Ting, economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The solid data came as China’s leaders started their annual closed-door meeting to discuss economic plans for next year. The official Xinhua news agency said the ruling Communist party convened its central economic work conference yesterday.
“投资有所趋软，但零售总额表现强劲，工业增加值增长仍相当稳健。多数人曾预计第四季度增长将回落，但现在看来很可能将保持在第三季度7.8%的水平，”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺表示。这批强劲数据出炉之际，中国领导人正开始举行年度闭门会议，讨论明年的经济规划。官方的新华社称，执政的中国共产党昨日召开了中央经济工作会议。The meeting is expected to produce a more detailed map for implementing the reforms launched at the party’s plenum last month, where China’s leaders vowed to give the market a “decisive” role in allocating resources in the economy.
预计这次会议将制定一份更为具体的路线图，以贯彻上月中共中央十八届三中全会发起的各项改革。中国领导人在三中全会上誓言让市场在中国经济的资源配置方面起到“决定性”作用。China has taken steps in that direction since the plenum. Over the weekend, the central bank moved ahead with its agenda for interest rate liberalisation by launching certificates of deposits, financial instruments that will allow banks to trade deposits between each other at market-determined interest rates.
自三中全会以来，中国已在这个方向上迈出了几步。上周末，中国央行推进其放开利率管制的议程，发布了《同业存单管理暂行办法》。同业存单这种金融工具可让各银行以市场决定的利率彼此买卖存款。The government has also reformed the way that companies list shares and has loosened capital controls in an experimental free trade zone in Shanghai, giving more play to market forces in both cases.
政府还改革了企业股票上市的方式，并在上海一个实验性的自贸区放松了资本管制——这两个举措都赋予市场力量更大的施展空间。China’s leaders are ex-pected to establish a growth target for next year at the economic work conference. Many have predicted Beijing would lower its target to 7 per cent for 2014, while others believe it will be maintained at 7.5 per cent.
预计中国领导人将在中央经济工作会议上确定明年的增长目标。很多人预计，中国高层将把2014年增长目标下调至7%，但也有人认为明年增长目标将保持在7.5%。