America has often thought of itself as a middle-class nation — one in which most people are merely comfortable and neither very rich nor very poor.
美国通常自认是一个中产阶级国家——大多数人过着只能算是舒适的生活，既不太富，也不会太穷。
That notion has come under siege lately. Income inequality has been rising since the early 1980s, and the median household income is now lower than it was in 1999. The status of the middle class has become a highly charged political issue. Nonetheless, a sober look at the trends of recent years reveals some reason for optimism: Pathways that already exist offer some chance of rejuvenating the middle class.
这种观点近来受到很多质疑。收入差距从上世纪80年代以来一直在拉大，家庭收入中位数已经低于1999年的水平。中产阶级地位成为极度敏感的政治问题。然而，冷静下来看一看近年的趋势，我们仍然有理由保持乐观：一些已有的途径，给中产阶级的再度崛起带来了机会。
The weakness of recent middle-class wage growth has stemmed from a number of factors, including foreign competition, technological changes that favor highly skilled workers and persistent poverty. Let’s consider each in turn.
近年中产阶级薪资增长的乏力源于多个因素，包括外国竞争，有利于高技能工人的科技变革，以及挥之不去的贫困问题。下面我们就逐一分析一下。
Much of the competition for American manufacturing has come from China, and recent research has shown that China’s economic impact in the United States has been bigger than many economists initially thought, and in some ways, it has been more painful. China’s manufacturing has held down American middle-class wages, while soaring Chinese demand for commodities has pushed up resource prices. Of course, cheap Chinese imports have made American paychecks go further, but that is no consolation for people who have lost their jobs or suffered lower wages as a consequence.
美国制造业的竞争主要来自中国，近来的研究显示，中国经济对美国的影响要比许多经济学家原本估计的更大，从某些方面来看，也更痛苦。中国制造制约了美国中产阶级薪资，而中国的大宗商品需求也推高了资源价格。当然，廉价的中国进口商品让美国人的薪水可以买到更多的东西，但这不会让那些因此失业或薪资下降的人好受些。
Better times may be ahead, though. Higher wages in China — and other emerging nations — are now limiting the competitive advantage of those economies. And perhaps more important for Americans, as China reaches technological maturity, it is likely to shower innovations on consumers, creating a net gain for people in the United States.
不过接下来情况可能会有好转。中国及其他新兴国家的薪资上涨，限制了这些经济体的竞争优势。而对美国人来说，更重要的可能是随着中国走向技术成熟，会给消费者带来铺天盖地的创新，为生活在美国的人创造净收益。
China is already the major producer of solar panels and electric cars, for example. It is likely to contribute important innovations in consumer drones and driverless cars and in many other fields: The Chinese government is pouring immense resources into biotechnology, including new gene editing techniques. When it comes to mobile apps, messaging and electronic payments, China is arguably ahead of America. Imagine a future in which Chinese innovations benefit Americans just as the United States benefited Europe and vice versa.
例如，中国已经是最大的太阳能组件和电动汽车生产国。它还可能给民用无人机、无人驾驶汽车以及其他许多领域带来重要的创新：中国政府向生物技术领域投入了巨量资源，包括新的基因编辑技术。在移动应用、即时通信和电子支付方面，中国可以说已经超过美国。可以想象在将来，中国创新给美国人带来的益处，将不亚于美国和欧洲之间的那种互惠。
This would mean more competition from China, of course, and lost jobs in some fields, but to simply focus on the negatives would be shortsighted. The reality is that innovators do not capture all or even most of the benefits they bring to the world. Once an idea emerges, its benefits begin to expand, and those benefits will surely spread to the United States.
当然，这意味着更多来自中国的竞争，某些领域会有失业，但死盯着负面因素是缺乏远见的。事实上，创新者给世界带来的益处不会被他独揽，甚至大部分都谈不上。一种理念一旦产生，其益处就会扩散出去，当然也会惠及美国。
What economists call skill-based technical change may also shift in a more egalitarian direction. The advent of information technology increased the value of workers and managers who could manipulate these new talents effectively, while smart software eliminated the jobs of many travel agents and paper-filing clerks. But consider a universe in which all it takes to work with a computer is to talk to it. That could lower the wages of technicians, while opening a new world where less skilled laborers could work with information technology effectively.
经济学家所说的“基于技能的技术变革”还会带来一种平等主义的趋向。信息技术的到来，给那些能有效掌握这些新才能的工人和管理人带来升值，与此同时，智能软件会淘汰许多旅行社和文员的工作岗位。但是，设想你生活在一个只需跟电脑说话就可以工作的世界。这会降低技术员的薪资，但同时也会开启一个新世界，技能水平低的工人也可以有效地使用信息技术来工作。
That new world is already emerging. Consider the Amazon Echo, a small stationary computer that responds to voice commands. It can play music, call a car service or build a shopping list. Imagine fully functional voice-activated computers created for the workplace as more people grow up with information technology at their fingertips.
这样的新世界已经在浮现。以Amazon Echo为例，这是一种可接受语音指令的小型固定电脑。它可以播放音乐、叫车、创建购物清单。随着越来越多的人在普及了信息技术的环境中长大，设想在工作场所有这样一台全功能语音激活电脑会是怎样一番景象。
Finally, income inequality may begin to reverse itself through the evolution of social norms. Poor people who see no way out of their plight won’t all be able to advance without outside help, but some of the impoverished will succeed despite the barriers they face.
最后，社会规范的演化也可能扭转收入不平等的趋势。在困境中四面碰壁的穷人，势必需要外部力量的帮助，然而还是有一些贫困者可以冲破隔阂取得成功。
Religions and social movements with strong moral codes may be able to help improve life prospects. It is striking, for example, that Utah fits the economic profile of an older, more middle-class-oriented America. The reasons for this are complex, but they may stem in part from the large number of Mormons in the state.
因循严苛道德准则的宗教和社会运动可能有助于改善生活前景。比如我们惊讶地看到，犹他州的经济状况，是符合一种老派的、更具中产阶级导向的美国形象的。原因很复杂，但可能在一定程度上源于该州有众多摩门教徒。
Mormons have done relatively well in economic terms, perhaps, at least in part, because their religious culture encourages behavior consistent with prosperity, such as savings, mutual assistance, family values and no drug and alcohol abuse.
摩门教徒在经济上的表现相对良好，在一定程度上可能是因为他们的宗教文化鼓励那些与富足生活相一致行为，比如储蓄、互助、家庭价值、不滥用药物和酒精。
I am not a Mormon and am not advocating that religion or any other. But it seems reasonable to observe that changing social norms, sometimes associated with religion, can help improve living standards.
我不是摩门教徒，也没有在倡导这种或其他任何一种宗教。然而这似乎是一个合理的观察——社会规范的改变有助于提高生活水平，而有时候这种改变和宗教有关。
All of these mechanisms involve some degree of speculation, and the speed at which they will develop will vary. Still, these processes can already be found around us to a limited degree. Furthermore, all of them could happen without requiring any major change in American public policy and thus they could bypass possible government gridlock.
这些机制都包含了一定程度的猜测，它们的发展也将是快慢不一的。然而我们已经可以在身边看到些许迹象。此外，所有这些进程都不需要美国做出任何重大公共政策改变，一旦政府陷入僵持，它也不会受到制约。
Most people agree there is plenty of unfairness built into the current political system, such as bad public policies, which often favor the well-off and erect barriers to the advancement of poorer and less educated individuals. How to change these policies will no doubt continue to be a matter of political debate.
多数人认为现行政治制度存在许多先天的不公，例如糟糕的公共政策往往让富人受益，给较贫困、教育程度较低的人制造障碍，阻止他们提升自己。这些政策该如何去改变，无疑仍将是一个政治辩题。
But there is reason to believe that when inequality trends start to run in reverse — whenever that might be — it will be because of processes that are operating largely outside of politics. Technology, trade and even religion may help restore prosperity to the middle class.
但我们有理由相信，不平等趋势的逆转——不管究竟什么时候出现——将源自一些基本上在政治之外运转的进程。技术、贸易甚至宗教都可能帮助中产阶级重新过上富足的生活。