Bernie Sanders is back in the saddle. Had Jon Ossoff, a centrist Democrat, won the special congressional election in Georgia on Tuesday, the party’s Clintonite wing would have been the real victor. Mr Ossoff promised to “make Trump furious”. Instead he made him happy. The Democrats keep chalking up moral victories against Donald Trump. But they have yet to achieve a single win. What might have been dismissed as the result of a one-off election will tilt the battle for control of a confused — and leaderless — party.
伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders，文首图右)重返战场。要是中间立场的民主党人乔恩?奥索夫(Jon Ossoff，文首图左)赢得了6月20日的乔治亚州特别国会选举，那么真正的胜利者将是民主党内的克林顿阵营。奥索夫承诺“把特朗普搞得火大”。结果他让特朗普得意。民主党人对唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)取得一个又一个道德上的胜利。但他们还一次都没有赢。有人可能会不屑地称，这只不过是一场一次性选举的结果，但这个结果将改变民主党控制权斗争的格局。现在的民主党非常混乱，群龙无首。Its biggest blow, of course, was Hillary Clinton’s defeat last November. Her backers poured money into the Georgia race, which was the most expensive in US history. But money is no substitute for passion. A win for Mr Ossoff would have signalled that the pragmatic, Emmanuel Macron, wing of the party could deliver results. It would also have emboldened Republicans to detach from Mr Trump. It may even have killed off his healthcare reform, which now looks likelier to pass into law. In spite of all that has happened, Mr Trump is still winning elections.
当然，民主党受到的最大打击，是希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)输掉去年11月的大选。她的支持者对乔治亚州特别国会选举投入重金——这场选举是美国史上耗资最大的国会选举。但金钱代替不了热情。奥索弗的胜利本将发出这样的信号：民主党内务实、像埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的那一派，可以取得成果。这个胜利本还将为共和党人壮胆，鼓励他们跟特朗普撇清关系。它甚至本还可能毙掉特朗普的医保改革——眼下这一改革在国会获得通过、成为法律的可能性似乎提高了。尽管风波不断，特朗普还在赢得选举。
So who can stop him? If it is not the Macron Democrats, then it will be the Jeremy Corbyn types. Obstacles keep being removed from their path. Their chief ally is Mr Trump himself. Having blown up the Republican party, the US president is doing the same to the Democrats. He generates as much energy from opponents as ardent loyalty from his base. The Democratic establishment remains intact and ready for combustion. Its defeat may well be the next great act in the Trumpian remake of US politics.
那么，谁能阻止他？如果马克龙式民主党人阻止不了，那就得看杰里米?科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)式的民主党人了。他们前进道路上的障碍不断被移除。他们的头号盟友是特朗普本人。在鼓动起共和党的热情后，这位美国总统正在鼓动起民主党人的热情。他从自己的支持者根基获得狂热的忠诚，同时也让对手慷慨激昂。民主党建制派仍然完好无损，等待被点燃。民主党建制派被打败，很可能将是特朗普重塑美国政治这场大戏的精彩下一幕。
The recent UK election offers some useful pointers for American Corbynistas. If the experts knew one thing it was that Mr Corbyn was lethal to the Labour party’s brand. It seems they misread that too. Like his American counterpart Mr Sanders, Labour’s leader evokes a human response that transcends much of the wonkery that preoccupies analysts. I have no idea whether the strong Labour showing meant voters want to renationalise the railways. Neither do Democrats. But I do know that Mr Corbyn pulled off a big jump in millennial turnout. By contrast, Mr Macron’s party took control of parliament last Sunday on the lowest turnout in French history. Likewise Mr Ossoff undershot even Mrs Clinton’s showing in Georgia’s sixth district, in spite of the money that poured in for him.
最近的英国大选为美国的“科尔宾”们提供了一些有用的启示。如果说专家们之前对一件事确信无疑，那就是科尔宾对工党的品牌有致命破坏性。看上去专家们在这件事上也错了。就如美国的左派桑德斯一样，科尔宾具有直达人心的感召力，超越了分析人士许多先入为主的纸上谈兵。我不知道工党的强劲得票率是否意味着选民想要将铁路收归国有。美国的民主党人也不知道。但我知道一点：科尔宾实现了千禧一代投票率的大幅上升。相比之下，马克龙的政党以法国历史上最低的投票率获得了国会控制权。同样，尽管有重金支持，奥索弗在乔治亚州第六区选举中的表现甚至不如希拉里。Mr Sanders also energises the young. For proof of his ascendancy, watch the aspiring Democratic presidential candidates for 2020. Many of them are junior senators, such as Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Kamala Harris of California. Since they are inexperienced, they have little record to run on. Since they are politicians, they stick their finger in the air. There is a stiff breeze going Mr Sanders’s way. Their stances reflect that. Free college tuition and universal healthcare are the grassroots rallying cries. Clintonite incrementalism is over.
桑德斯也能鼓动起年轻人的热情。要证明他的影响力，可以看一看有志参选2020年总统选举的民主党人。许多都是资历较浅的参议员，比如纽约州的柯尔斯滕?吉利布兰德(Kirsten Gillibrand)和加州的卡玛拉?哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。因为他们缺乏经验，他们没有多少竞选资本。因为他们是政客，他们感知风向。现在有一股强风支撑着桑德斯。他们的立场反映了这一点。高校免学费和全民医保是争取基层民众的口号。克林顿式渐进主义已经过时了。But there is one big problem with the rise of America’s populist left. Mr Sanders will be 79 at the next election — and he is showing every sign of wanting to run again. That is older than the oldest US president, Ronald Reagan, at the end of his final term. Mr Sanders also incites as much passion in his opponents — the Democratic establishment and 1 percenters everywhere — as he does among his fans.
但美国民粹主义左翼的崛起面临一个大问题。到下次大选时，桑德斯就79岁了——而一切迹象都显示，他想要再次参选。届时，他将比美国最老的总统罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)最后一个任期结束时还要老。桑德斯也在让自己的粉丝狂热的同时，让他的对手——民主党建制派和各地最富有的1%人口——同仇敌忾。A Sanders nomination would almost certainly trigger a third party run. Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, will be a slightly more youthful 78 in 2020. At 74, Mr Trump would be younger still. Such a three-way race could secure his re-election.
如果桑德斯获得提名，那几乎肯定会促使一名独立候选人参选。2020年，纽约市前市长迈克尔?布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg) 78岁，比桑德斯略小一点。届时74岁的特朗普更为年轻。这样的三方竞逐可能会帮助特朗普获得连任。Then there is the mercurial fluidity of politics today. If the Democratic establishment is ripe for disruption, why stop with Mr Sanders? Mr Trump’s victory has incited the dreams of a thousand billionaires. Think of Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team. Or Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s co-founder. Or Oprah Winfrey for that matter. When the rules of the game are changing this fast, it is futile to predict where the chips might fall.
此外，当今政治变幻莫测。如果颠覆民主党建制派的时机已经成熟，为何止步于桑德斯？特朗普的胜利激起了一千个亿万富翁的梦想。想一想达拉斯小牛队(Dallas Mavericks)的所有者马克?库班(Mark Cuban)。或者Facebook联合创始人马克?扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)。甚至欧普拉?温弗里(Oprah Winfrey)。当游戏规则在如此迅速地改变，预测结局走向是徒劳无益的。But it is highly entertaining. In an age of attention deficit disorder, America has a president who can entertain. Can the Democrats find a Trumpian doppelg?nger? For the time being, that man is Mr Sanders. Like Mr Corbyn, he comes across as sincere. Like the crazy uncle in the attic, he cannot change the subject. You may find his economic views naive or dangerous. But you know what he stands for. Once you start listening, it is hard to stop. If you are young, you appreciate his idealism.
但这是非常有娱乐性的。在一个缺乏耐心的年代，美国有一个能娱乐大家的总统。民主党能够找到一个酷似特朗普的人吗？就目前而言，那个人是桑德斯。像科尔宾一样，他给人真诚的印象。像蜗居在阁楼上的疯叔叔一样，他没法转换话题。你可能会觉得他的经济观点有些天真甚至危险。但你至少知道他的立场。一旦你开始听他说，你就很难停下。如果你还年轻，你会欣赏他的理想主义。The question is no longer whether America’s populist left is rising. It is who will lead it.
问题已不再是美国民粹主义左翼是否在崛起，而是谁将是领头人。