Chinese hedge funds are providing margin finance for leveraged bets on the country’s booming commodity futures market, in an echo of the practices that led to last year's stock market boom and bust.
中国的对冲基金正在提供保证金融资，使投资者可以对该国火爆的大宗商品市场进行杠杆化押注。这跟去年曾导致股市繁荣与萧条的做法很相似。
Futures prices for the so-called ferrous complex of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke have risen sharply this year as Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus has produced a revival of construction activity in real estate and infrastructure.
由于中国的财政和货币刺激政策导致了房地产和基础设施建设活动的复苏，所以今年钢材、铁矿石、焦煤和焦炭等铁相关商品的期货价格大幅上涨。
Rising commodity prices have in turn fuelled speculation in the futures markets. Turnover for front month coking coal futures traded in Dalian hit Rmb1.2tn in October, the second-largest month on record behind April, when China was first gripped by a commodities mania.
这些大宗商品价格上涨反过来刺激了期货市场的投机。10月，大连商品交易所即月焦煤期货成交量达到760万，为今年成交量第三大的月份，排在3月和4月之后。三、四两个月份，中国第一次出现大宗商品热潮。
Commodity trading has surged in China as retail investors, rich individuals and wealth managers use the sector as a quick and easy way to place leveraged bets on the domestic economy or government reforms.
中国大宗商品交易量发生激增，因为散户投资者、富裕人士和财富管理机构都把该行业作为对国内经济或政府改革进行杠杆化押注的一条快速、简捷的途径。
The surge in speculation activity has rattled global commodity markets, causing a sharp run-up in the price of raw materials such as steel and iron ore futures. That has astonished western trading houses and analysts accustomed to following the fundamentals of supply and demand.
投机活动激增为全球大宗商品市场带来了波动，造成原材料（如钢铁和铁矿石期货）价格的大幅上涨。这让习惯于追踪供求基本面的西方交易机构和分析师感到震惊。
Some hedge funds are also using structured investment products to provide margin loans to investors looking to ride the futures boom. Hedge funds generally buy the senior tranche, which promises a fixed return. Others buy the subordinate tranche, putting up some of their money as margin and borrowing funds from the senior tranche to enlarge the investment.
有些对冲基金也在使用结构化投资产品，为期待从期货繁荣中分一杯羹的投资者提供保证金贷款。对冲基金通常购买承诺固定收益的优先级份额。其他人购买劣后份额，使用他们的部分资金作为保证金，从优先级份额中借入资金，以扩大投资规模。
Providing financing for retail investors also represents a change of tack by Chinese hedge funds which in 2015 roiled global commodity markets directly with several well timed attacks on metals such as copper.
为散户投资者提供融资，也体现了中国对冲基金的策略变化。2015年，中国对冲基金对铜等金属发起了几次时机把握得很好的攻击，直接搅动了全球大宗商品市场。
A hedge fund manager in Shanghai said: “These are hedge funds looking for fixed returns. They’re not familiar with commodities, so strategy looks good to them. Someone else takes the big risk.”
上海的一名对冲基金经理说：“这些是寻求固定收益的对冲基金。他们不熟悉大宗商品，所以策略看起来很合适他们。让别人去承担巨大的风险。”
But this form of margin lending, known in Chinese as peizi, mirrors the type of shadow bank-style margin financing that helped fuel the Chinese stock market boom last year. Once the market turned, margin calls amplified losses as investors were forced to liquidate their holdings to repay loans.
但是这种形式的保证金贷款——中文称为“配资”——类似于去年推动中国股市繁荣的那种影子银行式融资。一旦市场转向，追加保证金的要求就放大了投资者的损失，因为投资者被迫平仓以偿还借款。
Regulated margin lending through securities brokerages for stock market investment caps leverage at Rmb2 of borrowed funds for every Rmb1 of the investor’s own money. The 21st century Business Herald reported on Wednesday that peizi for commodity futures investment can reach as high as 4:1.
用通过券商获得的合法保证金融资来投资股市，最高杠杆为两倍。《21世纪经济报道》(21st Century Business Herald)周三报道称，通过配资渠道投资商品期货的杠杆可能高达4倍。
An official at the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, told state media this week that recent increases in coal prices are “irrational”, citing speculation as one explanation.
本周，中国最高经济规划机构国家发改委(NDRC)的一位官员对国有媒体表示，近期煤炭价格的上涨是“非理性的”，并把投机引述为其中一个原因。
A trader at a futures brokerage in Shanghai said: “The speculative element in the market is very big right now. End users and those trying to do hedging are getting killed.”
上海某期货经纪公司的一名交易员说：“目前市场上的投机色彩非常重。最终用户和那些试图做套期保值的人被害惨。”
Margin finance is not the only reason for the rise in futures prices this year. The government’s campaign of “supply-side reform”, which is focused on shutting down excess capacity in steel, coal and non-ferrous metals, is also playing an important role. Regulators are controlling issuance of structured investment products more tightly given the role of peizi in last year’s stock boom.
保证金融资并不是今年期货价格上涨的唯一原因。中国政府的“供给侧改革”举措也发挥了重要作用。此项改革的重点是去除钢铁、煤炭和有色金属的过剩产能。鉴于配资在去年的股票繁荣中所起的作用，监管机构已开始更严格地控制结构化投资产品的发行。
Equally important, say analysts, is the wave of money sloshing through the financial system in search of decent returns. The mainland stock market has mostly traded sideways this year following last year’s boom turned bust, with the appeal of equities also undermined by sharp rises in bonds and real estate.
分析师们说，同样重要的是，金融体系中存在的那股正寻找像样回报的资金潮。今年中国内地股市基本都在横向盘整，债券和房地产价格的急剧上涨也削弱了股票的吸引力。
Wang Hong Ying, director of the China Financial Derivatives Investment Institute, said: “Interest rates are in a downward cycle. Lots of idle funds can’t fund good investment channels. When this money enters a market where supply and demand are already out of balance, it will push up prices for ferrous complex futures.”
中国金融衍生品投资研究院(China Financial Derivatives Investment Institute)院长王红英表示：“当前利率处于下行周期。大量闲置资金找不到好的投资渠道。随着这些资金进入一个供求原本就已失衡的市场，它将推高铁相关商品的期货合约的价格。”